Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 26–28°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 3, reflecting the latest IMGW guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting central Poland highs of 21–26°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering in sunny skies, warm air advection from the south, and light winds conducive to solar heating. Recent IMGW updates highlight a sharp turnaround from early-week chills of 8–15°C, with model runs showing spread due to potential afternoon cloudiness or ridge positioning—ECMWF leaning slightly cooler at ~23°C for Warsaw, while GFS outliers push toward 28°C under clearer conditions. Historical early-May averages hover near 18°C, amplifying this warm anomaly; watch 12Z model refreshes today and May 2 observations for shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 3?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 3?
26°C 33%
27°C 28%
28°C 19%
25°C 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
5%
25°C
19%
26°C
31%
27°C
28%
28°C
19%
29°C or higher
5%
26°C 33%
27°C 28%
28°C 19%
25°C 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
19°C or below
$168 Vol.
1%
20°C
$108 Vol.
1%
21°C
$113 Vol.
1%
22°C
$517 Vol.
1%
23°C
$369 Vol.
1%
24°C
$456 Vol.
5%
25°C
$210 Vol.
19%
26°C
$410 Vol.
31%
27°C
$317 Vol.
28%
28°C
$362 Vol.
19%
29°C or higher
$247 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 26–28°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 3, reflecting the latest IMGW guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting central Poland highs of 21–26°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering in sunny skies, warm air advection from the south, and light winds conducive to solar heating. Recent IMGW updates highlight a sharp turnaround from early-week chills of 8–15°C, with model runs showing spread due to potential afternoon cloudiness or ridge positioning—ECMWF leaning slightly cooler at ~23°C for Warsaw, while GFS outliers push toward 28°C under clearer conditions. Historical early-May averages hover near 18°C, amplifying this warm anomaly; watch 12Z model refreshes today and May 2 observations for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 1, 2026, 12:39 AM ET
Volumen
$3,271Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:39 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 26–28°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 3, reflecting the latest IMGW guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting central Poland highs of 21–26°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering in sunny skies, warm air advection from the south, and light winds conducive to solar heating. Recent IMGW updates highlight a sharp turnaround from early-week chills of 8–15°C, with model runs showing spread due to potential afternoon cloudiness or ridge positioning—ECMWF leaning slightly cooler at ~23°C for Warsaw, while GFS outliers push toward 28°C under clearer conditions. Historical early-May averages hover near 18°C, amplifying this warm anomaly; watch 12Z model refreshes today and May 2 observations for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,271Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:39 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 26–28°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 3, reflecting the latest IMGW guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting central Poland highs of 21–26°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering in sunny skies, warm air advection from the south, and light winds conducive to solar heating. Recent IMGW updates highlight a sharp turnaround from early-week chills of 8–15°C, with model runs showing spread due to potential afternoon cloudiness or ridge positioning—ECMWF leaning slightly cooler at ~23°C for Warsaw, while GFS outliers push toward 28°C under clearer conditions. Historical early-May averages hover near 18°C, amplifying this warm anomaly; watch 12Z model refreshes today and May 2 observations for shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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