Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for a 24°C high in Tel Aviv on May 1, driven by GFS and ECMWF ensemble means clustering in the low-to-mid 20s°C, adjusted for a documented ~1.1°C cold bias in raw short-range temperature maximum forecasts at Ben Gurion Airport—the NOAA-monitored resolution site. Recent Israel Meteorological Service guidance projects a cooler 20–22°C peak amid northerly winds ushering continental air after late April's warmer spell, but traders factor in climatological early May norms near 25°C and boundary layer uncertainties from coastal sea breezes that often yield 2–3°C spreads. Overnight model updates and dawn soundings could refine odds before finalization.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 1?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 1?
24°C 55%
23°C 22%
25°C 22%
22°C 4.0%
NUEVO
$21,588 Vol.
NUEVO
$21,588 Vol.
1 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
22%
24°C
55%
25°C
22%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 55%
23°C 22%
25°C 22%
22°C 4.0%
NUEVO
$21,588 Vol.
NUEVO
$21,588 Vol.
1 may 2026
18°C or below
$2,425 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,698 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,990 Vol.
1%
22°C
$2,974 Vol.
4%
23°C
$1,279 Vol.
22%
24°C
$1,497 Vol.
55%
25°C
$1,669 Vol.
22%
26°C
$2,107 Vol.
3%
27°C
$1,354 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$1,408 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for a 24°C high in Tel Aviv on May 1, driven by GFS and ECMWF ensemble means clustering in the low-to-mid 20s°C, adjusted for a documented ~1.1°C cold bias in raw short-range temperature maximum forecasts at Ben Gurion Airport—the NOAA-monitored resolution site. Recent Israel Meteorological Service guidance projects a cooler 20–22°C peak amid northerly winds ushering continental air after late April's warmer spell, but traders factor in climatological early May norms near 25°C and boundary layer uncertainties from coastal sea breezes that often yield 2–3°C spreads. Overnight model updates and dawn soundings could refine odds before finalization.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$21,588Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for a 24°C high in Tel Aviv on May 1, driven by GFS and ECMWF ensemble means clustering in the low-to-mid 20s°C, adjusted for a documented ~1.1°C cold bias in raw short-range temperature maximum forecasts at Ben Gurion Airport—the NOAA-monitored resolution site. Recent Israel Meteorological Service guidance projects a cooler 20–22°C peak amid northerly winds ushering continental air after late April's warmer spell, but traders factor in climatological early May norms near 25°C and boundary layer uncertainties from coastal sea breezes that often yield 2–3°C spreads. Overnight model updates and dawn soundings could refine odds before finalization.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$21,588Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for a 24°C high in Tel Aviv on May 1, driven by GFS and ECMWF ensemble means clustering in the low-to-mid 20s°C, adjusted for a documented ~1.1°C cold bias in raw short-range temperature maximum forecasts at Ben Gurion Airport—the NOAA-monitored resolution site. Recent Israel Meteorological Service guidance projects a cooler 20–22°C peak amid northerly winds ushering continental air after late April's warmer spell, but traders factor in climatological early May norms near 25°C and boundary layer uncertainties from coastal sea breezes that often yield 2–3°C spreads. Overnight model updates and dawn soundings could refine odds before finalization.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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