Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55% implied probability to 24°C as Tel Aviv's highest temperature on May 1, reflecting the latest forecast model consensus from global systems like ECMWF and GFS, alongside Israel Meteorological Service guidance pointing to daytime highs of 23-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. Recent late-April observations, including highs near 24-27°C on April 26-28, support this positioning, though coastal sea breezes—driven by the warm Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures around 20°C—have moderated peaks, clustering trader sentiment around 23-25°C outcomes totaling over 90%. Inherent forecast uncertainty arises from diurnal heating cycles and microscale effects at official measurement stations; evening 00Z model runs on April 30 could shift probabilities further as resolution nears. Historical early-May averages hover at 24°C, reinforcing the balanced odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 1?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 1?
24°C 55%
23°C 22%
25°C 22%
22°C 4.0%
NUEVO
$21,588 Vol.
NUEVO
$21,588 Vol.
1 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
22%
24°C
55%
25°C
22%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 55%
23°C 22%
25°C 22%
22°C 4.0%
NUEVO
$21,588 Vol.
NUEVO
$21,588 Vol.
1 may 2026
18°C or below
$2,425 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,698 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,990 Vol.
1%
22°C
$2,974 Vol.
4%
23°C
$1,279 Vol.
22%
24°C
$1,497 Vol.
55%
25°C
$1,669 Vol.
22%
26°C
$2,107 Vol.
3%
27°C
$1,354 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$1,408 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55% implied probability to 24°C as Tel Aviv's highest temperature on May 1, reflecting the latest forecast model consensus from global systems like ECMWF and GFS, alongside Israel Meteorological Service guidance pointing to daytime highs of 23-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. Recent late-April observations, including highs near 24-27°C on April 26-28, support this positioning, though coastal sea breezes—driven by the warm Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures around 20°C—have moderated peaks, clustering trader sentiment around 23-25°C outcomes totaling over 90%. Inherent forecast uncertainty arises from diurnal heating cycles and microscale effects at official measurement stations; evening 00Z model runs on April 30 could shift probabilities further as resolution nears. Historical early-May averages hover at 24°C, reinforcing the balanced odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$21,588Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55% implied probability to 24°C as Tel Aviv's highest temperature on May 1, reflecting the latest forecast model consensus from global systems like ECMWF and GFS, alongside Israel Meteorological Service guidance pointing to daytime highs of 23-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. Recent late-April observations, including highs near 24-27°C on April 26-28, support this positioning, though coastal sea breezes—driven by the warm Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures around 20°C—have moderated peaks, clustering trader sentiment around 23-25°C outcomes totaling over 90%. Inherent forecast uncertainty arises from diurnal heating cycles and microscale effects at official measurement stations; evening 00Z model runs on April 30 could shift probabilities further as resolution nears. Historical early-May averages hover at 24°C, reinforcing the balanced odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$21,588Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55% implied probability to 24°C as Tel Aviv's highest temperature on May 1, reflecting the latest forecast model consensus from global systems like ECMWF and GFS, alongside Israel Meteorological Service guidance pointing to daytime highs of 23-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. Recent late-April observations, including highs near 24-27°C on April 26-28, support this positioning, though coastal sea breezes—driven by the warm Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures around 20°C—have moderated peaks, clustering trader sentiment around 23-25°C outcomes totaling over 90%. Inherent forecast uncertainty arises from diurnal heating cycles and microscale effects at official measurement stations; evening 00Z model runs on April 30 could shift probabilities further as resolution nears. Historical early-May averages hover at 24°C, reinforcing the balanced odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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