Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 74°F or higher (65.5%) for Seattle's highest temperature on May 4, aligning with the latest National Weather Service (NWS) Seattle forecasts projecting highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This positioning stems from a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering in warm, dry continental air, as detailed in the May 1 Area Forecast Discussion, where 850 mb temperatures around 16°C suggest surface highs near 81°F after adding typical lapse rates. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models reinforces this, showing clearing skies and reduced marine influence after recent cloudy periods. Compared to the climatological May normal of 63°F, this represents a notable warm anomaly, though uncertainties in low-level cloud persistence or model biases temper probabilities below 90%. Watch for NWS updates Sunday, as new observations could refine the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seattle on May 4?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 4?
74°F or higher 90.5%
72-73°F 5.9%
70-71°F 3.8%
68-69°F 2.2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
4%
72-73°F
6%
74°F or higher
91%
74°F or higher 90.5%
72-73°F 5.9%
70-71°F 3.8%
68-69°F 2.2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
55°F or below
$11 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$20 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$10 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$10 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$10 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$15 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$266 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$267 Vol.
2%
70-71°F
$10 Vol.
4%
72-73°F
$10 Vol.
6%
74°F or higher
$228 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 74°F or higher (65.5%) for Seattle's highest temperature on May 4, aligning with the latest National Weather Service (NWS) Seattle forecasts projecting highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This positioning stems from a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering in warm, dry continental air, as detailed in the May 1 Area Forecast Discussion, where 850 mb temperatures around 16°C suggest surface highs near 81°F after adding typical lapse rates. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models reinforces this, showing clearing skies and reduced marine influence after recent cloudy periods. Compared to the climatological May normal of 63°F, this represents a notable warm anomaly, though uncertainties in low-level cloud persistence or model biases temper probabilities below 90%. Watch for NWS updates Sunday, as new observations could refine the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$854Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 74°F or higher (65.5%) for Seattle's highest temperature on May 4, aligning with the latest National Weather Service (NWS) Seattle forecasts projecting highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This positioning stems from a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering in warm, dry continental air, as detailed in the May 1 Area Forecast Discussion, where 850 mb temperatures around 16°C suggest surface highs near 81°F after adding typical lapse rates. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models reinforces this, showing clearing skies and reduced marine influence after recent cloudy periods. Compared to the climatological May normal of 63°F, this represents a notable warm anomaly, though uncertainties in low-level cloud persistence or model biases temper probabilities below 90%. Watch for NWS updates Sunday, as new observations could refine the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$854Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 74°F or higher (65.5%) for Seattle's highest temperature on May 4, aligning with the latest National Weather Service (NWS) Seattle forecasts projecting highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This positioning stems from a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering in warm, dry continental air, as detailed in the May 1 Area Forecast Discussion, where 850 mb temperatures around 16°C suggest surface highs near 81°F after adding typical lapse rates. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models reinforces this, showing clearing skies and reduced marine influence after recent cloudy periods. Compared to the climatological May normal of 63°F, this represents a notable warm anomaly, though uncertainties in low-level cloud persistence or model biases temper probabilities below 90%. Watch for NWS updates Sunday, as new observations could refine the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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