Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 27°C (40%) as the leading outcome for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecast guidance from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), projecting a 29°C maximum, alongside AccuWeather (28°C) and The Weather Channel (28°C) models showing peaks near 27–28°C amid mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers. These implied probabilities reflect recent model updates over the past 24 hours highlighting warm northeasterly air advection tempered by sea breeze incursions and high humidity, boosting urban heat island effects above May's climatological average of 23°C. Key uncertainties include afternoon cloud development suppressing extremes, with INMET station observations (e.g., Mirante de Santana) providing hourly data to track the peak through evening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 1?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 1?
27°C 39%
28°C 31%
26°C 20.6%
29°C 7%
$14,781 Vol.
$14,781 Vol.
1 may 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
21%
27°C
39%
28°C
31%
29°C
7%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 39%
28°C 31%
26°C 20.6%
29°C 7%
$14,781 Vol.
$14,781 Vol.
1 may 2026
23°C or below
$784 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,972 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,803 Vol.
3%
26°C
$1,603 Vol.
21%
27°C
$1,521 Vol.
39%
28°C
$1,598 Vol.
31%
29°C
$1,290 Vol.
7%
30°C
$1,675 Vol.
2%
31°C
$1,307 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$753 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$781 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 27°C (40%) as the leading outcome for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecast guidance from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), projecting a 29°C maximum, alongside AccuWeather (28°C) and The Weather Channel (28°C) models showing peaks near 27–28°C amid mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers. These implied probabilities reflect recent model updates over the past 24 hours highlighting warm northeasterly air advection tempered by sea breeze incursions and high humidity, boosting urban heat island effects above May's climatological average of 23°C. Key uncertainties include afternoon cloud development suppressing extremes, with INMET station observations (e.g., Mirante de Santana) providing hourly data to track the peak through evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$14,781Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 27°C (40%) as the leading outcome for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecast guidance from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), projecting a 29°C maximum, alongside AccuWeather (28°C) and The Weather Channel (28°C) models showing peaks near 27–28°C amid mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers. These implied probabilities reflect recent model updates over the past 24 hours highlighting warm northeasterly air advection tempered by sea breeze incursions and high humidity, boosting urban heat island effects above May's climatological average of 23°C. Key uncertainties include afternoon cloud development suppressing extremes, with INMET station observations (e.g., Mirante de Santana) providing hourly data to track the peak through evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$14,781Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 27°C (40%) as the leading outcome for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecast guidance from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), projecting a 29°C maximum, alongside AccuWeather (28°C) and The Weather Channel (28°C) models showing peaks near 27–28°C amid mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers. These implied probabilities reflect recent model updates over the past 24 hours highlighting warm northeasterly air advection tempered by sea breeze incursions and high humidity, boosting urban heat island effects above May's climatological average of 23°C. Key uncertainties include afternoon cloud development suppressing extremes, with INMET station observations (e.g., Mirante de Santana) providing hourly data to track the peak through evening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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