Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a narrow spread in forecast models for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 3, with 15–17°C outcomes each at 35% implied probability amid inherent short-term uncertainty in spring weather patterns. A moderate cold front sweeping through Shandong province over the past 48 hours, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration, has introduced cooler northerly airflow, suppressing highs below the early-May historical average of 18–20°C and shifting prior warmer projections downward. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows consensus around 16°C, differentiated by minor variations in cloud cover persistence and sea-breeze moderation along Qingdao's coast. Watch for CMA's next 12-hour update tomorrow, which could refine the 2°C model spread as the front's influence wanes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Qingdao on May 3?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 3?
17°C 31%
16°C 28%
15°C 25%
18°C 12.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
7%
14°C
2%
15°C
25%
16°C
28%
17°C
31%
18°C
13%
19°C
8%
20°C
4%
21°C or higher
3%
17°C 31%
16°C 28%
15°C 25%
18°C 12.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
11°C or below
$50 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$40 Vol.
1%
13°C
$149 Vol.
7%
14°C
$790 Vol.
2%
15°C
$69 Vol.
25%
16°C
$10 Vol.
28%
17°C
$10 Vol.
31%
18°C
$21 Vol.
13%
19°C
$21 Vol.
8%
20°C
$25 Vol.
4%
21°C or higher
$118 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a narrow spread in forecast models for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 3, with 15–17°C outcomes each at 35% implied probability amid inherent short-term uncertainty in spring weather patterns. A moderate cold front sweeping through Shandong province over the past 48 hours, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration, has introduced cooler northerly airflow, suppressing highs below the early-May historical average of 18–20°C and shifting prior warmer projections downward. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows consensus around 16°C, differentiated by minor variations in cloud cover persistence and sea-breeze moderation along Qingdao's coast. Watch for CMA's next 12-hour update tomorrow, which could refine the 2°C model spread as the front's influence wanes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 1, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
Volumen
$1,303Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:26 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a narrow spread in forecast models for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 3, with 15–17°C outcomes each at 35% implied probability amid inherent short-term uncertainty in spring weather patterns. A moderate cold front sweeping through Shandong province over the past 48 hours, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration, has introduced cooler northerly airflow, suppressing highs below the early-May historical average of 18–20°C and shifting prior warmer projections downward. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows consensus around 16°C, differentiated by minor variations in cloud cover persistence and sea-breeze moderation along Qingdao's coast. Watch for CMA's next 12-hour update tomorrow, which could refine the 2°C model spread as the front's influence wanes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,303Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:26 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a narrow spread in forecast models for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 3, with 15–17°C outcomes each at 35% implied probability amid inherent short-term uncertainty in spring weather patterns. A moderate cold front sweeping through Shandong province over the past 48 hours, as reported by the China Meteorological Administration, has introduced cooler northerly airflow, suppressing highs below the early-May historical average of 18–20°C and shifting prior warmer projections downward. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows consensus around 16°C, differentiated by minor variations in cloud cover persistence and sea-breeze moderation along Qingdao's coast. Watch for CMA's next 12-hour update tomorrow, which could refine the 2°C model spread as the front's influence wanes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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