Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 20°C (44.5%) or 19°C (36.5%) for Warsaw on May 1, reflecting tight clustering in latest ECMWF and GFS model runs amid a high-pressure ridge ushering warmer air after recent cold snaps with daytime highs below 10°C. AccuWeather and BBC forecasts align at around 20-20.5°C under mostly sunny skies with low precipitation risk (9%), though GFS shows potential for 25°C in warmer ensemble members, creating differentiation via cloud cover variability and southerly wind strength influencing 2m temperatures at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Uncertainty persists in short-range guidance due to diurnal timing and minor model divergences; IMGW updates and early observations will sharpen resolution before evening peak. Historical early May averages hover near 16°C, underscoring above-normal expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 1?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 1?
20°C 45%
19°C 36%
21°C 14%
18°C 5.9%
NUEVO
$13,884 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,884 Vol.
1 may 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
6%
19°C
36%
20°C
45%
21°C
14%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 45%
19°C 36%
21°C 14%
18°C 5.9%
NUEVO
$13,884 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,884 Vol.
1 may 2026
15°C or below
$669 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$399 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,332 Vol.
1%
18°C
$2,239 Vol.
6%
19°C
$1,875 Vol.
36%
20°C
$1,575 Vol.
45%
21°C
$1,992 Vol.
14%
22°C
$2,701 Vol.
2%
23°C
$771 Vol.
1%
24°C
$327 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$332 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 20°C (44.5%) or 19°C (36.5%) for Warsaw on May 1, reflecting tight clustering in latest ECMWF and GFS model runs amid a high-pressure ridge ushering warmer air after recent cold snaps with daytime highs below 10°C. AccuWeather and BBC forecasts align at around 20-20.5°C under mostly sunny skies with low precipitation risk (9%), though GFS shows potential for 25°C in warmer ensemble members, creating differentiation via cloud cover variability and southerly wind strength influencing 2m temperatures at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Uncertainty persists in short-range guidance due to diurnal timing and minor model divergences; IMGW updates and early observations will sharpen resolution before evening peak. Historical early May averages hover near 16°C, underscoring above-normal expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ET
Volumen
$13,884Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 20°C (44.5%) or 19°C (36.5%) for Warsaw on May 1, reflecting tight clustering in latest ECMWF and GFS model runs amid a high-pressure ridge ushering warmer air after recent cold snaps with daytime highs below 10°C. AccuWeather and BBC forecasts align at around 20-20.5°C under mostly sunny skies with low precipitation risk (9%), though GFS shows potential for 25°C in warmer ensemble members, creating differentiation via cloud cover variability and southerly wind strength influencing 2m temperatures at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Uncertainty persists in short-range guidance due to diurnal timing and minor model divergences; IMGW updates and early observations will sharpen resolution before evening peak. Historical early May averages hover near 16°C, underscoring above-normal expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$13,884Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 20°C (44.5%) or 19°C (36.5%) for Warsaw on May 1, reflecting tight clustering in latest ECMWF and GFS model runs amid a high-pressure ridge ushering warmer air after recent cold snaps with daytime highs below 10°C. AccuWeather and BBC forecasts align at around 20-20.5°C under mostly sunny skies with low precipitation risk (9%), though GFS shows potential for 25°C in warmer ensemble members, creating differentiation via cloud cover variability and southerly wind strength influencing 2m temperatures at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Uncertainty persists in short-range guidance due to diurnal timing and minor model divergences; IMGW updates and early observations will sharpen resolution before evening peak. Historical early May averages hover near 16°C, underscoring above-normal expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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