Trader consensus on Polymarket's Ankara highest temperature market for May 1 heavily favors 15°C (33%) and 16°C (32%), reflecting Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance of a 17°C peak amid northerly winds to 36 km/h and rising humidity to 79%, but tempered by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means centering 15–17°C under a low-pressure trough promoting persistent cloud cover that curbs solar insolation and diurnal boundary-layer heating—well below the early-May climatological average of 19°C. The narrow spread arises from model discrepancies in cloud fraction: denser overcast could cap peaks at 15–16°C by limiting turbulent mixing, while intermittent clearing might permit 17°C, as suggested in latest 00Z runs; hourly observations from MGM stations will resolve this springtime forecast uncertainty tomorrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on May 1?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 1?
15°C 34%
16°C 32%
17°C 25%
14°C 8.0%
NUEVO
$16,277 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,277 Vol.
1 may 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
8%
15°C
34%
16°C
32%
17°C
25%
18°C
6%
19°C
2%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
<1%
15°C 34%
16°C 32%
17°C 25%
14°C 8.0%
NUEVO
$16,277 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,277 Vol.
1 may 2026
11°C or below
$708 Vol.
1%
12°C
$754 Vol.
1%
13°C
$882 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,423 Vol.
8%
15°C
$1,562 Vol.
34%
16°C
$917 Vol.
32%
17°C
$1,237 Vol.
25%
18°C
$2,127 Vol.
6%
19°C
$2,117 Vol.
2%
20°C
$806 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$3,764 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket's Ankara highest temperature market for May 1 heavily favors 15°C (33%) and 16°C (32%), reflecting Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance of a 17°C peak amid northerly winds to 36 km/h and rising humidity to 79%, but tempered by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means centering 15–17°C under a low-pressure trough promoting persistent cloud cover that curbs solar insolation and diurnal boundary-layer heating—well below the early-May climatological average of 19°C. The narrow spread arises from model discrepancies in cloud fraction: denser overcast could cap peaks at 15–16°C by limiting turbulent mixing, while intermittent clearing might permit 17°C, as suggested in latest 00Z runs; hourly observations from MGM stations will resolve this springtime forecast uncertainty tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$16,277Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket's Ankara highest temperature market for May 1 heavily favors 15°C (33%) and 16°C (32%), reflecting Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance of a 17°C peak amid northerly winds to 36 km/h and rising humidity to 79%, but tempered by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means centering 15–17°C under a low-pressure trough promoting persistent cloud cover that curbs solar insolation and diurnal boundary-layer heating—well below the early-May climatological average of 19°C. The narrow spread arises from model discrepancies in cloud fraction: denser overcast could cap peaks at 15–16°C by limiting turbulent mixing, while intermittent clearing might permit 17°C, as suggested in latest 00Z runs; hourly observations from MGM stations will resolve this springtime forecast uncertainty tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$16,277Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Ankara highest temperature market for May 1 heavily favors 15°C (33%) and 16°C (32%), reflecting Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance of a 17°C peak amid northerly winds to 36 km/h and rising humidity to 79%, but tempered by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means centering 15–17°C under a low-pressure trough promoting persistent cloud cover that curbs solar insolation and diurnal boundary-layer heating—well below the early-May climatological average of 19°C. The narrow spread arises from model discrepancies in cloud fraction: denser overcast could cap peaks at 15–16°C by limiting turbulent mixing, while intermittent clearing might permit 17°C, as suggested in latest 00Z runs; hourly observations from MGM stations will resolve this springtime forecast uncertainty tomorrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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