Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors an 8°C maximum temperature (44.5% implied probability) at Vnukovo International Airport, as measured by NOAA, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometcenter converging on daytime highs of 7–9°C. This positioning stems from a persistent Arctic air mass lingering after the record-breaking late-April snowstorm on April 27–28, which dumped historic snowfall and suppressed temperatures to 5°C highs through April 30 amid northerly winds and overcast skies. Extensive cloud cover and 60–70% chances of light rain on May 1 further limit solar heating, placing outcomes 7–9°C below the climatological May 1 average of 16°C. With short-range model spreads of just 1–2°C from variations in cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing, traders anticipate minimal shifts ahead of final observations, though April 30 evening data releases could prompt minor adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on May 1?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 1?
8°C 43%
9°C 25%
7°C 16%
10°C 12%
NUEVO
$14,669 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,669 Vol.
1 may 2026
4°C or below
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
4%
7°C
16%
8°C
43%
9°C
25%
10°C
12%
11°C
2%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
<1%
8°C 43%
9°C 25%
7°C 16%
10°C 12%
NUEVO
$14,669 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,669 Vol.
1 may 2026
4°C or below
$1,537 Vol.
1%
5°C
$882 Vol.
1%
6°C
$723 Vol.
4%
7°C
$1,118 Vol.
16%
8°C
$646 Vol.
43%
9°C
$640 Vol.
25%
10°C
$408 Vol.
12%
11°C
$1,959 Vol.
2%
12°C
$1,988 Vol.
1%
13°C
$1,643 Vol.
1%
14°C or higher
$3,189 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors an 8°C maximum temperature (44.5% implied probability) at Vnukovo International Airport, as measured by NOAA, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometcenter converging on daytime highs of 7–9°C. This positioning stems from a persistent Arctic air mass lingering after the record-breaking late-April snowstorm on April 27–28, which dumped historic snowfall and suppressed temperatures to 5°C highs through April 30 amid northerly winds and overcast skies. Extensive cloud cover and 60–70% chances of light rain on May 1 further limit solar heating, placing outcomes 7–9°C below the climatological May 1 average of 16°C. With short-range model spreads of just 1–2°C from variations in cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing, traders anticipate minimal shifts ahead of final observations, though April 30 evening data releases could prompt minor adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$14,669Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors an 8°C maximum temperature (44.5% implied probability) at Vnukovo International Airport, as measured by NOAA, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometcenter converging on daytime highs of 7–9°C. This positioning stems from a persistent Arctic air mass lingering after the record-breaking late-April snowstorm on April 27–28, which dumped historic snowfall and suppressed temperatures to 5°C highs through April 30 amid northerly winds and overcast skies. Extensive cloud cover and 60–70% chances of light rain on May 1 further limit solar heating, placing outcomes 7–9°C below the climatological May 1 average of 16°C. With short-range model spreads of just 1–2°C from variations in cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing, traders anticipate minimal shifts ahead of final observations, though April 30 evening data releases could prompt minor adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$14,669Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors an 8°C maximum temperature (44.5% implied probability) at Vnukovo International Airport, as measured by NOAA, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometcenter converging on daytime highs of 7–9°C. This positioning stems from a persistent Arctic air mass lingering after the record-breaking late-April snowstorm on April 27–28, which dumped historic snowfall and suppressed temperatures to 5°C highs through April 30 amid northerly winds and overcast skies. Extensive cloud cover and 60–70% chances of light rain on May 1 further limit solar heating, placing outcomes 7–9°C below the climatological May 1 average of 16°C. With short-range model spreads of just 1–2°C from variations in cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing, traders anticipate minimal shifts ahead of final observations, though April 30 evening data releases could prompt minor adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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