Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models point to a high temperature of 24-25°C in Paris on May 1, fueling trader sentiment with 25°C holding a slim 36.5% implied probability edge over 24°C at 32.5%. This tight clustering reflects model consensus on mild southerly airflow and a building high-pressure ridge over western Europe, delivering above-average spring warmth—well beyond the historical May 1 average of 18°C—while differing slightly on peak timing and cloud-induced suppression. Recent 24-48 hour updates show minimal spread beyond 23-26°C, though convective showers could cap intensities. Traders await afternoon 12Z runs for resolution clarity as the event nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on May 1?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 1?
25°C 39%
24°C 31%
26°C 20%
23°C 8.0%
NUEVO
$49,151 Vol.
NUEVO
$49,151 Vol.
1 may 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
8%
24°C
31%
25°C
39%
26°C
20%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 39%
24°C 31%
26°C 20%
23°C 8.0%
NUEVO
$49,151 Vol.
NUEVO
$49,151 Vol.
1 may 2026
20°C or below
$2,404 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,795 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$4,424 Vol.
1%
23°C
$7,219 Vol.
8%
24°C
$6,270 Vol.
31%
25°C
$6,212 Vol.
39%
26°C
$4,950 Vol.
20%
27°C
$5,930 Vol.
2%
28°C
$6,311 Vol.
1%
29°C
$2,424 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$223 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models point to a high temperature of 24-25°C in Paris on May 1, fueling trader sentiment with 25°C holding a slim 36.5% implied probability edge over 24°C at 32.5%. This tight clustering reflects model consensus on mild southerly airflow and a building high-pressure ridge over western Europe, delivering above-average spring warmth—well beyond the historical May 1 average of 18°C—while differing slightly on peak timing and cloud-induced suppression. Recent 24-48 hour updates show minimal spread beyond 23-26°C, though convective showers could cap intensities. Traders await afternoon 12Z runs for resolution clarity as the event nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$49,151Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models point to a high temperature of 24-25°C in Paris on May 1, fueling trader sentiment with 25°C holding a slim 36.5% implied probability edge over 24°C at 32.5%. This tight clustering reflects model consensus on mild southerly airflow and a building high-pressure ridge over western Europe, delivering above-average spring warmth—well beyond the historical May 1 average of 18°C—while differing slightly on peak timing and cloud-induced suppression. Recent 24-48 hour updates show minimal spread beyond 23-26°C, though convective showers could cap intensities. Traders await afternoon 12Z runs for resolution clarity as the event nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$49,151Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models point to a high temperature of 24-25°C in Paris on May 1, fueling trader sentiment with 25°C holding a slim 36.5% implied probability edge over 24°C at 32.5%. This tight clustering reflects model consensus on mild southerly airflow and a building high-pressure ridge over western Europe, delivering above-average spring warmth—well beyond the historical May 1 average of 18°C—while differing slightly on peak timing and cloud-induced suppression. Recent 24-48 hour updates show minimal spread beyond 23-26°C, though convective showers could cap intensities. Traders await afternoon 12Z runs for resolution clarity as the event nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes