Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 62-63°F (35.5%) and 64-65°F (36.7%) for New York City's highest temperature on May 1 at Central Park, reflecting genuine uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range guidance and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF, which cluster around 63°F following a cold frontal passage expected late April 30. Key differentiators include timing of post-frontal clearing and boundary layer mixing—partial afternoon sunshine could boost highs toward 64-65°F via enhanced insolation, while persistent clouds or northerly winds would cap them at 62-63°F amid 850 hPa temperatures near 5-7°C. This aligns with early May climate normals of mid-60s°F, with final 00Z model updates tonight likely to sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Central Park observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on May 1?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 1?
64-65°F 36.4%
62-63°F 36%
60-61°F 15%
66-67°F 9.9%
NUEVO
$43,235 Vol.
NUEVO
$43,235 Vol.
1 may 2026
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
36%
64-65°F
36%
66-67°F
10%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
<1%
72°F or higher
<1%
64-65°F 36.4%
62-63°F 36%
60-61°F 15%
66-67°F 9.9%
NUEVO
$43,235 Vol.
NUEVO
$43,235 Vol.
1 may 2026
53°F or below
$3,487 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$5,656 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$7,609 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$4,750 Vol.
2%
60-61°F
$2,092 Vol.
15%
62-63°F
$3,288 Vol.
36%
64-65°F
$2,743 Vol.
36%
66-67°F
$2,382 Vol.
10%
68-69°F
$3,908 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$1,243 Vol.
<1%
72°F or higher
$6,083 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 62-63°F (35.5%) and 64-65°F (36.7%) for New York City's highest temperature on May 1 at Central Park, reflecting genuine uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range guidance and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF, which cluster around 63°F following a cold frontal passage expected late April 30. Key differentiators include timing of post-frontal clearing and boundary layer mixing—partial afternoon sunshine could boost highs toward 64-65°F via enhanced insolation, while persistent clouds or northerly winds would cap them at 62-63°F amid 850 hPa temperatures near 5-7°C. This aligns with early May climate normals of mid-60s°F, with final 00Z model updates tonight likely to sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Central Park observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$43,235Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 62-63°F (35.5%) and 64-65°F (36.7%) for New York City's highest temperature on May 1 at Central Park, reflecting genuine uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range guidance and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF, which cluster around 63°F following a cold frontal passage expected late April 30. Key differentiators include timing of post-frontal clearing and boundary layer mixing—partial afternoon sunshine could boost highs toward 64-65°F via enhanced insolation, while persistent clouds or northerly winds would cap them at 62-63°F amid 850 hPa temperatures near 5-7°C. This aligns with early May climate normals of mid-60s°F, with final 00Z model updates tonight likely to sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Central Park observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$43,235Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 62-63°F (35.5%) and 64-65°F (36.7%) for New York City's highest temperature on May 1 at Central Park, reflecting genuine uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range guidance and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF, which cluster around 63°F following a cold frontal passage expected late April 30. Key differentiators include timing of post-frontal clearing and boundary layer mixing—partial afternoon sunshine could boost highs toward 64-65°F via enhanced insolation, while persistent clouds or northerly winds would cap them at 62-63°F amid 850 hPa temperatures near 5-7°C. This aligns with early May climate normals of mid-60s°F, with final 00Z model updates tonight likely to sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Central Park observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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