Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF model runs indicate a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe persisting through May 1, delivering clear skies and light winds in Munich that favor daytime highs clustering around 20°C, driving trader consensus to 48% implied probability for exactly 20°C and 30% for 21°C. This positioning reflects yesterday's forecast refinements showing above-climatological peaks—Munich's historical May 1 average nears 17°C—boosted by ample solar insolation absent convective interference. Ensemble spreads capture realistic uncertainty from minor cloud variability or shear, with negligible odds below 18°C or above 22°C given stable synoptic patterns. Watch DWD's final advisory today ahead of airport station measurements resolving the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Munich on May 1?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 1?
20°C 48%
21°C 31%
19°C 18%
18°C 3.6%
NUEVO
$38,568 Vol.
NUEVO
$38,568 Vol.
1 may 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
18%
20°C
48%
21°C
31%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
1%
20°C 48%
21°C 31%
19°C 18%
18°C 3.6%
NUEVO
$38,568 Vol.
NUEVO
$38,568 Vol.
1 may 2026
13°C or below
$3,066 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$675 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$713 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$6,285 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$9,861 Vol.
1%
18°C
$5,251 Vol.
4%
19°C
$3,709 Vol.
18%
20°C
$2,546 Vol.
48%
21°C
$2,390 Vol.
31%
22°C
$1,907 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$2,181 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF model runs indicate a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe persisting through May 1, delivering clear skies and light winds in Munich that favor daytime highs clustering around 20°C, driving trader consensus to 48% implied probability for exactly 20°C and 30% for 21°C. This positioning reflects yesterday's forecast refinements showing above-climatological peaks—Munich's historical May 1 average nears 17°C—boosted by ample solar insolation absent convective interference. Ensemble spreads capture realistic uncertainty from minor cloud variability or shear, with negligible odds below 18°C or above 22°C given stable synoptic patterns. Watch DWD's final advisory today ahead of airport station measurements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$38,568Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF model runs indicate a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe persisting through May 1, delivering clear skies and light winds in Munich that favor daytime highs clustering around 20°C, driving trader consensus to 48% implied probability for exactly 20°C and 30% for 21°C. This positioning reflects yesterday's forecast refinements showing above-climatological peaks—Munich's historical May 1 average nears 17°C—boosted by ample solar insolation absent convective interference. Ensemble spreads capture realistic uncertainty from minor cloud variability or shear, with negligible odds below 18°C or above 22°C given stable synoptic patterns. Watch DWD's final advisory today ahead of airport station measurements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$38,568Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF model runs indicate a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe persisting through May 1, delivering clear skies and light winds in Munich that favor daytime highs clustering around 20°C, driving trader consensus to 48% implied probability for exactly 20°C and 30% for 21°C. This positioning reflects yesterday's forecast refinements showing above-climatological peaks—Munich's historical May 1 average nears 17°C—boosted by ample solar insolation absent convective interference. Ensemble spreads capture realistic uncertainty from minor cloud variability or shear, with negligible odds below 18°C or above 22°C given stable synoptic patterns. Watch DWD's final advisory today ahead of airport station measurements resolving the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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