Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8°C (36% implied probability) as Moscow's highest temperature on May 1, closely trailed by 9°C (27%) and 7°C (20%), driven by the latest forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter and Gismeteo projecting daytime highs of 6–10°C under persistent northerly flow advecting Arctic air masses. This reflects a prolonged cold anomaly following record late-April snowfall on April 27–28, with overcast skies, possible light rain, and residual snow cover suppressing surface warming—well below the 16°C historical May 1 average. Model ensembles like local GEM runs show tight uncertainty around peak afternoon temperatures, differentiated by cloud breaks or precipitation timing; final observations from official stations like VVC will resolve the market tomorrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on May 1?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 1?
8°C 36%
9°C 29%
7°C 20%
10°C 12%
NUEVO
$24,651 Vol.
NUEVO
$24,651 Vol.
1 may 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
3%
7°C
20%
8°C
36%
9°C
29%
10°C
12%
11°C
2%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
<1%
8°C 36%
9°C 29%
7°C 20%
10°C 12%
NUEVO
$24,651 Vol.
NUEVO
$24,651 Vol.
1 may 2026
4°C or below
$2,326 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$1,550 Vol.
1%
6°C
$1,535 Vol.
3%
7°C
$2,270 Vol.
20%
8°C
$1,241 Vol.
36%
9°C
$1,413 Vol.
29%
10°C
$710 Vol.
12%
11°C
$3,610 Vol.
2%
12°C
$2,682 Vol.
1%
13°C
$3,078 Vol.
1%
14°C or higher
$4,237 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8°C (36% implied probability) as Moscow's highest temperature on May 1, closely trailed by 9°C (27%) and 7°C (20%), driven by the latest forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter and Gismeteo projecting daytime highs of 6–10°C under persistent northerly flow advecting Arctic air masses. This reflects a prolonged cold anomaly following record late-April snowfall on April 27–28, with overcast skies, possible light rain, and residual snow cover suppressing surface warming—well below the 16°C historical May 1 average. Model ensembles like local GEM runs show tight uncertainty around peak afternoon temperatures, differentiated by cloud breaks or precipitation timing; final observations from official stations like VVC will resolve the market tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$24,651Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8°C (36% implied probability) as Moscow's highest temperature on May 1, closely trailed by 9°C (27%) and 7°C (20%), driven by the latest forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter and Gismeteo projecting daytime highs of 6–10°C under persistent northerly flow advecting Arctic air masses. This reflects a prolonged cold anomaly following record late-April snowfall on April 27–28, with overcast skies, possible light rain, and residual snow cover suppressing surface warming—well below the 16°C historical May 1 average. Model ensembles like local GEM runs show tight uncertainty around peak afternoon temperatures, differentiated by cloud breaks or precipitation timing; final observations from official stations like VVC will resolve the market tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$24,651Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8°C (36% implied probability) as Moscow's highest temperature on May 1, closely trailed by 9°C (27%) and 7°C (20%), driven by the latest forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter and Gismeteo projecting daytime highs of 6–10°C under persistent northerly flow advecting Arctic air masses. This reflects a prolonged cold anomaly following record late-April snowfall on April 27–28, with overcast skies, possible light rain, and residual snow cover suppressing surface warming—well below the 16°C historical May 1 average. Model ensembles like local GEM runs show tight uncertainty around peak afternoon temperatures, differentiated by cloud breaks or precipitation timing; final observations from official stations like VVC will resolve the market tomorrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes