Trader consensus on Polymarket shows tight clustering with 21–22% implied probabilities for 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C as Lagos's highest temperature on May 9, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty amid the onset of Nigeria's rainy season. NiMet's February 2026 seasonal climate prediction highlighted longer rainy periods in Lagos, fostering frequent thunderstorms and 87% cloud cover that typically limit early-May highs to 30–32°C, down from drier-season peaks above 33°C. Differentiating factors include sea breeze strength moderating coastal humidity, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and convective timing—scattered showers could shave 1–2°C off peaks, while brief sun breaks enable spikes. Global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles currently converge here, with daily updates expected from NiMet ahead of resolution via official airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Lagos on May 9?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 9?
32°C 34%
33°C 24%
31°C 18%
34°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 may 2026
27°C or below
3%
28°C
3%
29°C
4%
30°C
9%
31°C
20%
32°C
30%
33°C
24%
34°C
12%
35°C
7%
36°C
7%
37°C or higher
2%
32°C 34%
33°C 24%
31°C 18%
34°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 may 2026
27°C or below
$1 Vol.
3%
28°C
$60 Vol.
3%
29°C
$13 Vol.
4%
30°C
$0 Vol.
9%
31°C
$6 Vol.
20%
32°C
$6 Vol.
30%
33°C
$0 Vol.
24%
34°C
$0 Vol.
12%
35°C
$2 Vol.
7%
36°C
$2 Vol.
7%
37°C or higher
$241 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows tight clustering with 21–22% implied probabilities for 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C as Lagos's highest temperature on May 9, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty amid the onset of Nigeria's rainy season. NiMet's February 2026 seasonal climate prediction highlighted longer rainy periods in Lagos, fostering frequent thunderstorms and 87% cloud cover that typically limit early-May highs to 30–32°C, down from drier-season peaks above 33°C. Differentiating factors include sea breeze strength moderating coastal humidity, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and convective timing—scattered showers could shave 1–2°C off peaks, while brief sun breaks enable spikes. Global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles currently converge here, with daily updates expected from NiMet ahead of resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 7, 2026, 12:25 AM ET
Volumen
$331Fecha de finalización
9 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 7, 2026, 12:25 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows tight clustering with 21–22% implied probabilities for 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C as Lagos's highest temperature on May 9, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty amid the onset of Nigeria's rainy season. NiMet's February 2026 seasonal climate prediction highlighted longer rainy periods in Lagos, fostering frequent thunderstorms and 87% cloud cover that typically limit early-May highs to 30–32°C, down from drier-season peaks above 33°C. Differentiating factors include sea breeze strength moderating coastal humidity, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and convective timing—scattered showers could shave 1–2°C off peaks, while brief sun breaks enable spikes. Global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles currently converge here, with daily updates expected from NiMet ahead of resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$331Fecha de finalización
9 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 7, 2026, 12:25 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows tight clustering with 21–22% implied probabilities for 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C as Lagos's highest temperature on May 9, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty amid the onset of Nigeria's rainy season. NiMet's February 2026 seasonal climate prediction highlighted longer rainy periods in Lagos, fostering frequent thunderstorms and 87% cloud cover that typically limit early-May highs to 30–32°C, down from drier-season peaks above 33°C. Differentiating factors include sea breeze strength moderating coastal humidity, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and convective timing—scattered showers could shave 1–2°C off peaks, while brief sun breaks enable spikes. Global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles currently converge here, with daily updates expected from NiMet ahead of resolution via official airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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