Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport reaching 28°C or higher on May 9, while clustering strong sentiment around 24-27°C outcomes amid forecasts projecting peaks near 25-26°C from sources like AccuWeather (79°F/26°C, cloudy with 91% showers) and Weather.com (77°F/25°C, showers). This positioning stems from recent cooler-than-average early May conditions—May 6 peaked at 26°C—driven by persistent low-level moisture, cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms, capping highs below the 29°C climatological norm. Model consensus (ECMWF, GFS, China Meteorological Administration short-range guidance) highlights uncertainty from potential afternoon clearing or sea breeze moderation, with updated runs due May 8.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 9?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 9?
26°C 32%
27°C 29%
25°C 22%
28°C or higher 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
10%
25°C
22%
26°C
32%
27°C
29%
28°C or higher
14%
26°C 32%
27°C 29%
25°C 22%
28°C or higher 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 may 2026
18°C or below
$111 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$112 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$108 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$58 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$24 Vol.
1%
23°C
$3 Vol.
3%
24°C
$10 Vol.
10%
25°C
$12 Vol.
22%
26°C
$12 Vol.
32%
27°C
$1 Vol.
29%
28°C or higher
$46 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport reaching 28°C or higher on May 9, while clustering strong sentiment around 24-27°C outcomes amid forecasts projecting peaks near 25-26°C from sources like AccuWeather (79°F/26°C, cloudy with 91% showers) and Weather.com (77°F/25°C, showers). This positioning stems from recent cooler-than-average early May conditions—May 6 peaked at 26°C—driven by persistent low-level moisture, cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms, capping highs below the 29°C climatological norm. Model consensus (ECMWF, GFS, China Meteorological Administration short-range guidance) highlights uncertainty from potential afternoon clearing or sea breeze moderation, with updated runs due May 8.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 7, 2026, 12:40 AM ET
Volumen
$491Fecha de finalización
9 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 7, 2026, 12:40 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport reaching 28°C or higher on May 9, while clustering strong sentiment around 24-27°C outcomes amid forecasts projecting peaks near 25-26°C from sources like AccuWeather (79°F/26°C, cloudy with 91% showers) and Weather.com (77°F/25°C, showers). This positioning stems from recent cooler-than-average early May conditions—May 6 peaked at 26°C—driven by persistent low-level moisture, cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms, capping highs below the 29°C climatological norm. Model consensus (ECMWF, GFS, China Meteorological Administration short-range guidance) highlights uncertainty from potential afternoon clearing or sea breeze moderation, with updated runs due May 8.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$491Fecha de finalización
9 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 7, 2026, 12:40 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport reaching 28°C or higher on May 9, while clustering strong sentiment around 24-27°C outcomes amid forecasts projecting peaks near 25-26°C from sources like AccuWeather (79°F/26°C, cloudy with 91% showers) and Weather.com (77°F/25°C, showers). This positioning stems from recent cooler-than-average early May conditions—May 6 peaked at 26°C—driven by persistent low-level moisture, cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms, capping highs below the 29°C climatological norm. Model consensus (ECMWF, GFS, China Meteorological Administration short-range guidance) highlights uncertainty from potential afternoon clearing or sea breeze moderation, with updated runs due May 8.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes