Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (39%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, driven by a northerly cold front from the Balkans ushering in breezy northeast winds (15-27 km/h per Turkish State Meteorological Service, MGM) and morning rain showers that cap diurnal heating. Recent developments include overnight lows near 9°C and persistent cloud cover, aligning with AccuWeather's 12°C high forecast (82% precipitation chance) and yr.no's 11°C maximum at Atatürk Airport amid heavy rain. GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads of 1-2°C—stemming from variability in cloud thickness, frontal boundary position, and shower timing—differentiate the close 10°C (24%), 11°C, and 12°C (32%) odds, well below May climatological highs of 19°C; NOAA's Istanbul Airport reading will confirm amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
11°C 45%
12°C 32%
10°C 19%
13°C 3.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
19%
11°C
45%
12°C
32%
13°C
4%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 45%
12°C 32%
10°C 19%
13°C 3.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
7°C or below
$2,010 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,180 Vol.
1%
9°C
$1,242 Vol.
2%
10°C
$500 Vol.
19%
11°C
$214 Vol.
45%
12°C
$365 Vol.
32%
13°C
$1,306 Vol.
4%
14°C
$853 Vol.
1%
15°C
$419 Vol.
1%
16°C
$284 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$160 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (39%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, driven by a northerly cold front from the Balkans ushering in breezy northeast winds (15-27 km/h per Turkish State Meteorological Service, MGM) and morning rain showers that cap diurnal heating. Recent developments include overnight lows near 9°C and persistent cloud cover, aligning with AccuWeather's 12°C high forecast (82% precipitation chance) and yr.no's 11°C maximum at Atatürk Airport amid heavy rain. GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads of 1-2°C—stemming from variability in cloud thickness, frontal boundary position, and shower timing—differentiate the close 10°C (24%), 11°C, and 12°C (32%) odds, well below May climatological highs of 19°C; NOAA's Istanbul Airport reading will confirm amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$8,532Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (39%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, driven by a northerly cold front from the Balkans ushering in breezy northeast winds (15-27 km/h per Turkish State Meteorological Service, MGM) and morning rain showers that cap diurnal heating. Recent developments include overnight lows near 9°C and persistent cloud cover, aligning with AccuWeather's 12°C high forecast (82% precipitation chance) and yr.no's 11°C maximum at Atatürk Airport amid heavy rain. GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads of 1-2°C—stemming from variability in cloud thickness, frontal boundary position, and shower timing—differentiate the close 10°C (24%), 11°C, and 12°C (32%) odds, well below May climatological highs of 19°C; NOAA's Istanbul Airport reading will confirm amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,532Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (39%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, driven by a northerly cold front from the Balkans ushering in breezy northeast winds (15-27 km/h per Turkish State Meteorological Service, MGM) and morning rain showers that cap diurnal heating. Recent developments include overnight lows near 9°C and persistent cloud cover, aligning with AccuWeather's 12°C high forecast (82% precipitation chance) and yr.no's 11°C maximum at Atatürk Airport amid heavy rain. GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads of 1-2°C—stemming from variability in cloud thickness, frontal boundary position, and shower timing—differentiate the close 10°C (24%), 11°C, and 12°C (32%) odds, well below May climatological highs of 19°C; NOAA's Istanbul Airport reading will confirm amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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