Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on April 30, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun International Airport station (ZGGG), where real-time hourly readings peaked at 77°F (precisely 25°C) between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds inhibiting further warming. This outcome fell short of early forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS projecting 26–27°C due to unanticipated increased cloud cover from a weak frontal boundary. With sunset passed and evening temperatures dropping to 24°C, final daily summaries from CMA are expected within 24 hours, though a challenge would require a rare upward revision from secondary stations or data correction—scenarios deemed negligible given consistent multi-hour peak observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 30?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 30?
25°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$58,818 Vol.
$58,818 Vol.
30 abr 2026
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$58,818 Vol.
$58,818 Vol.
30 abr 2026
25°C
$11,535 Vol.
100%
26°C
$9,154 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$7,453 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5,681 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$7,311 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on April 30, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun International Airport station (ZGGG), where real-time hourly readings peaked at 77°F (precisely 25°C) between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds inhibiting further warming. This outcome fell short of early forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS projecting 26–27°C due to unanticipated increased cloud cover from a weak frontal boundary. With sunset passed and evening temperatures dropping to 24°C, final daily summaries from CMA are expected within 24 hours, though a challenge would require a rare upward revision from secondary stations or data correction—scenarios deemed negligible given consistent multi-hour peak observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volumen
$58,818Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:43 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Ventana de disputas
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on April 30, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun International Airport station (ZGGG), where real-time hourly readings peaked at 77°F (precisely 25°C) between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds inhibiting further warming. This outcome fell short of early forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS projecting 26–27°C due to unanticipated increased cloud cover from a weak frontal boundary. With sunset passed and evening temperatures dropping to 24°C, final daily summaries from CMA are expected within 24 hours, though a challenge would require a rare upward revision from secondary stations or data correction—scenarios deemed negligible given consistent multi-hour peak observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$58,818Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:43 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Ventana de disputas
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on April 30, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun International Airport station (ZGGG), where real-time hourly readings peaked at 77°F (precisely 25°C) between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds inhibiting further warming. This outcome fell short of early forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS projecting 26–27°C due to unanticipated increased cloud cover from a weak frontal boundary. With sunset passed and evening temperatures dropping to 24°C, final daily summaries from CMA are expected within 24 hours, though a challenge would require a rare upward revision from secondary stations or data correction—scenarios deemed negligible given consistent multi-hour peak observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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