Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 24°C (39.5% implied probability) at Ministro Pistarini International Airport—the market's official resolution station—in Buenos Aires on May 1, anchored by the latest short-range forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and supporting global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 23–25°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. This positions 25°C (21.5%) and 23°C (17.5%) as strong contenders amid inherent forecast uncertainty two days out, where ensemble spreads reflect potential for slight intensification from high-pressure ridging. Above-seasonal norms (May averages ~18°C) stem from recent mild autumn patterns, with SMN updates expected through April 30 and real-time observations on May 1 likely to sharpen probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 1?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 1?
24°C 40%
25°C 21.5%
23°C 20%
26°C or higher 8.1%
NUEVO
$53,906 Vol.
NUEVO
$53,906 Vol.
1 may 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
7%
23°C
20%
24°C
40%
25°C
22%
26°C or higher
8%
24°C 40%
25°C 21.5%
23°C 20%
26°C or higher 8.1%
NUEVO
$53,906 Vol.
NUEVO
$53,906 Vol.
1 may 2026
16°C or below
$3,271 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$7,390 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$11,209 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$7,149 Vol.
1%
20°C
$8,184 Vol.
1%
21°C
$3,688 Vol.
2%
22°C
$3,176 Vol.
7%
23°C
$1,285 Vol.
20%
24°C
$2,741 Vol.
40%
25°C
$2,073 Vol.
22%
26°C or higher
$3,739 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 24°C (39.5% implied probability) at Ministro Pistarini International Airport—the market's official resolution station—in Buenos Aires on May 1, anchored by the latest short-range forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and supporting global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 23–25°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. This positions 25°C (21.5%) and 23°C (17.5%) as strong contenders amid inherent forecast uncertainty two days out, where ensemble spreads reflect potential for slight intensification from high-pressure ridging. Above-seasonal norms (May averages ~18°C) stem from recent mild autumn patterns, with SMN updates expected through April 30 and real-time observations on May 1 likely to sharpen probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$53,906Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 24°C (39.5% implied probability) at Ministro Pistarini International Airport—the market's official resolution station—in Buenos Aires on May 1, anchored by the latest short-range forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and supporting global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 23–25°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. This positions 25°C (21.5%) and 23°C (17.5%) as strong contenders amid inherent forecast uncertainty two days out, where ensemble spreads reflect potential for slight intensification from high-pressure ridging. Above-seasonal norms (May averages ~18°C) stem from recent mild autumn patterns, with SMN updates expected through April 30 and real-time observations on May 1 likely to sharpen probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$53,906Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 24°C (39.5% implied probability) at Ministro Pistarini International Airport—the market's official resolution station—in Buenos Aires on May 1, anchored by the latest short-range forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and supporting global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 23–25°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. This positions 25°C (21.5%) and 23°C (17.5%) as strong contenders amid inherent forecast uncertainty two days out, where ensemble spreads reflect potential for slight intensification from high-pressure ridging. Above-seasonal norms (May averages ~18°C) stem from recent mild autumn patterns, with SMN updates expected through April 30 and real-time observations on May 1 likely to sharpen probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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