Recent model runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 20 will likely fall between 18–21 °C, driven by moderate southerly flow and partial cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This consensus, combined with historical May climatology showing average lows near 17 °C and occasional maritime moderation, explains why the market assigns the highest implied probabilities to 20 °C and 21 °C. Slight downward revisions in ensemble guidance over the past 48 hours have narrowed the spread, yet persistent uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and any late-day frontal passage keeps the 18 °C outcome competitive at roughly 21 percent. Traders are monitoring the next 00Z and 12Z model updates for clearer signals on overnight wind speeds and dew-point trends that will determine the precise minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 20?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 20?
21°C 26%
20°C 23%
18°C 21.0%
19°C 7%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
5%
18°C
21%
19°C
7%
20°C
27%
21°C
27%
22°C
5%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 26%
20°C 23%
18°C 21.0%
19°C 7%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
15°C or below
$33 Vol.
1%
16°C
$60 Vol.
3%
17°C
$20 Vol.
5%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$19 Vol.
7%
20°C
$28 Vol.
27%
21°C
$30 Vol.
27%
22°C
$12 Vol.
5%
23°C
$6 Vol.
5%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C or higher
$91 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 20 will likely fall between 18–21 °C, driven by moderate southerly flow and partial cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This consensus, combined with historical May climatology showing average lows near 17 °C and occasional maritime moderation, explains why the market assigns the highest implied probabilities to 20 °C and 21 °C. Slight downward revisions in ensemble guidance over the past 48 hours have narrowed the spread, yet persistent uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and any late-day frontal passage keeps the 18 °C outcome competitive at roughly 21 percent. Traders are monitoring the next 00Z and 12Z model updates for clearer signals on overnight wind speeds and dew-point trends that will determine the precise minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$299End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 20 will likely fall between 18–21 °C, driven by moderate southerly flow and partial cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This consensus, combined with historical May climatology showing average lows near 17 °C and occasional maritime moderation, explains why the market assigns the highest implied probabilities to 20 °C and 21 °C. Slight downward revisions in ensemble guidance over the past 48 hours have narrowed the spread, yet persistent uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and any late-day frontal passage keeps the 18 °C outcome competitive at roughly 21 percent. Traders are monitoring the next 00Z and 12Z model updates for clearer signals on overnight wind speeds and dew-point trends that will determine the precise minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$299End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDRecent model runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 20 will likely fall between 18–21 °C, driven by moderate southerly flow and partial cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This consensus, combined with historical May climatology showing average lows near 17 °C and occasional maritime moderation, explains why the market assigns the highest implied probabilities to 20 °C and 21 °C. Slight downward revisions in ensemble guidance over the past 48 hours have narrowed the spread, yet persistent uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and any late-day frontal passage keeps the 18 °C outcome competitive at roughly 21 percent. Traders are monitoring the next 00Z and 12Z model updates for clearer signals on overnight wind speeds and dew-point trends that will determine the precise minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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