Recent model consensus from global forecasting systems points to Shanghai's overnight minimum on May 19 settling between 19°C and 21°C, reflecting mild southerly flow and moderate cloud cover that reduces radiative cooling. Mid-May climatology shows average lows near 16–18°C, yet a weakening subtropical high and limited cold-air advection have kept surface temperatures slightly elevated in the latest runs. Forecasters note typical diurnal ranges of 5–8°C under these spring conditions, with any increase in low-level moisture or wind speed able to nudge the minimum up or down by 1–2°C. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble members expected over the next 48 hours will clarify whether the outcome leans toward the current market favorite near 19°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 19?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 19?
19°C 33%
20°C 31%
21°C 22%
17°C 4.0%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
3%
19°C
33%
20°C
31%
21°C
22%
22°C
3%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
19°C 33%
20°C 31%
21°C 22%
17°C 4.0%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
16°C or below
$110 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$5 Vol.
3%
19°C
$17 Vol.
33%
20°C
$19 Vol.
31%
21°C
$30 Vol.
22%
22°C
$5 Vol.
3%
23°C
$99 Vol.
2%
24°C
$15 Vol.
1%
25°C
$136 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$23 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from global forecasting systems points to Shanghai's overnight minimum on May 19 settling between 19°C and 21°C, reflecting mild southerly flow and moderate cloud cover that reduces radiative cooling. Mid-May climatology shows average lows near 16–18°C, yet a weakening subtropical high and limited cold-air advection have kept surface temperatures slightly elevated in the latest runs. Forecasters note typical diurnal ranges of 5–8°C under these spring conditions, with any increase in low-level moisture or wind speed able to nudge the minimum up or down by 1–2°C. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble members expected over the next 48 hours will clarify whether the outcome leans toward the current market favorite near 19°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$459End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from global forecasting systems points to Shanghai's overnight minimum on May 19 settling between 19°C and 21°C, reflecting mild southerly flow and moderate cloud cover that reduces radiative cooling. Mid-May climatology shows average lows near 16–18°C, yet a weakening subtropical high and limited cold-air advection have kept surface temperatures slightly elevated in the latest runs. Forecasters note typical diurnal ranges of 5–8°C under these spring conditions, with any increase in low-level moisture or wind speed able to nudge the minimum up or down by 1–2°C. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble members expected over the next 48 hours will clarify whether the outcome leans toward the current market favorite near 19°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$459End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDRecent model consensus from global forecasting systems points to Shanghai's overnight minimum on May 19 settling between 19°C and 21°C, reflecting mild southerly flow and moderate cloud cover that reduces radiative cooling. Mid-May climatology shows average lows near 16–18°C, yet a weakening subtropical high and limited cold-air advection have kept surface temperatures slightly elevated in the latest runs. Forecasters note typical diurnal ranges of 5–8°C under these spring conditions, with any increase in low-level moisture or wind speed able to nudge the minimum up or down by 1–2°C. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble members expected over the next 48 hours will clarify whether the outcome leans toward the current market favorite near 19°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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