Current numerical weather models from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts converge on a most-likely overnight low of 19–20°C for Shanghai on May 18, driving the market-implied odds of 42.5% for 20°C and 29.0% for 19°C. A stable springtime pattern across eastern China features limited cold-air advection combined with moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, which sets the stage for these temperatures at the official Shanghai Pudong International Airport station. Traders weigh this consensus against potential adjustments from boundary-layer moisture and wind shifts that could nudge the minimum slightly higher or lower. The next full model update cycle, due within 24 hours, will provide the final guidance before resolution and remains the key near-term catalyst for any odds movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 18?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 18?
20°C 43%
19°C 36%
18°C 5%
21°C 2.5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
5%
19°C
31%
20°C
48%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 43%
19°C 36%
18°C 5%
21°C 2.5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
15°C or below
$126 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$125 Vol.
1%
17°C
$206 Vol.
1%
18°C
$436 Vol.
5%
19°C
$120 Vol.
31%
20°C
$181 Vol.
48%
21°C
$281 Vol.
3%
22°C
$1,007 Vol.
1%
23°C
$208 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$226 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current numerical weather models from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts converge on a most-likely overnight low of 19–20°C for Shanghai on May 18, driving the market-implied odds of 42.5% for 20°C and 29.0% for 19°C. A stable springtime pattern across eastern China features limited cold-air advection combined with moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, which sets the stage for these temperatures at the official Shanghai Pudong International Airport station. Traders weigh this consensus against potential adjustments from boundary-layer moisture and wind shifts that could nudge the minimum slightly higher or lower. The next full model update cycle, due within 24 hours, will provide the final guidance before resolution and remains the key near-term catalyst for any odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,061End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current numerical weather models from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts converge on a most-likely overnight low of 19–20°C for Shanghai on May 18, driving the market-implied odds of 42.5% for 20°C and 29.0% for 19°C. A stable springtime pattern across eastern China features limited cold-air advection combined with moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, which sets the stage for these temperatures at the official Shanghai Pudong International Airport station. Traders weigh this consensus against potential adjustments from boundary-layer moisture and wind shifts that could nudge the minimum slightly higher or lower. The next full model update cycle, due within 24 hours, will provide the final guidance before resolution and remains the key near-term catalyst for any odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,061End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDCurrent numerical weather models from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts converge on a most-likely overnight low of 19–20°C for Shanghai on May 18, driving the market-implied odds of 42.5% for 20°C and 29.0% for 19°C. A stable springtime pattern across eastern China features limited cold-air advection combined with moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, which sets the stage for these temperatures at the official Shanghai Pudong International Airport station. Traders weigh this consensus against potential adjustments from boundary-layer moisture and wind shifts that could nudge the minimum slightly higher or lower. The next full model update cycle, due within 24 hours, will provide the final guidance before resolution and remains the key near-term catalyst for any odds movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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