Recent Korea Meteorological Administration model runs and ensemble guidance place Seoul’s overnight low for May 18 in the narrow 13–15 °C window, reflecting modest radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and light variable winds. Mid-May climatology at the official Seoul Central Observatory shows typical minima clustered between 12 °C and 16 °C, with the current setup near the historical median. Light southerly flow and low humidity favor efficient heat loss after sunset, yet any increase in cloud cover or urban heat retention could nudge the recorded low one degree higher. With the three leading outcomes—14 °C, 13 °C, and 15 °C—holding closely matched implied probabilities, traders are weighing small forecast revisions expected in the final KMA update before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on May 18?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 18?
14°C 36%
13°C 34%
15°C 16%
12°C 6.9%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
25%
14°C
33%
15°C
16%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
14°C 36%
13°C 34%
15°C 16%
12°C 6.9%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
11°C or below
$159 Vol.
1%
12°C
$237 Vol.
7%
13°C
$64 Vol.
25%
14°C
$50 Vol.
33%
15°C
$65 Vol.
16%
16°C
$748 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,139 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$473 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$399 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$397 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$1,275 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration model runs and ensemble guidance place Seoul’s overnight low for May 18 in the narrow 13–15 °C window, reflecting modest radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and light variable winds. Mid-May climatology at the official Seoul Central Observatory shows typical minima clustered between 12 °C and 16 °C, with the current setup near the historical median. Light southerly flow and low humidity favor efficient heat loss after sunset, yet any increase in cloud cover or urban heat retention could nudge the recorded low one degree higher. With the three leading outcomes—14 °C, 13 °C, and 15 °C—holding closely matched implied probabilities, traders are weighing small forecast revisions expected in the final KMA update before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$4,573End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration model runs and ensemble guidance place Seoul’s overnight low for May 18 in the narrow 13–15 °C window, reflecting modest radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and light variable winds. Mid-May climatology at the official Seoul Central Observatory shows typical minima clustered between 12 °C and 16 °C, with the current setup near the historical median. Light southerly flow and low humidity favor efficient heat loss after sunset, yet any increase in cloud cover or urban heat retention could nudge the recorded low one degree higher. With the three leading outcomes—14 °C, 13 °C, and 15 °C—holding closely matched implied probabilities, traders are weighing small forecast revisions expected in the final KMA update before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,573End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIRecent Korea Meteorological Administration model runs and ensemble guidance place Seoul’s overnight low for May 18 in the narrow 13–15 °C window, reflecting modest radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and light variable winds. Mid-May climatology at the official Seoul Central Observatory shows typical minima clustered between 12 °C and 16 °C, with the current setup near the historical median. Light southerly flow and low humidity favor efficient heat loss after sunset, yet any increase in cloud cover or urban heat retention could nudge the recorded low one degree higher. With the three leading outcomes—14 °C, 13 °C, and 15 °C—holding closely matched implied probabilities, traders are weighing small forecast revisions expected in the final KMA update before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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