Current ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models indicate Seoul overnight lows centered near 15–16°C for May 20 under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds, supporting the market-implied odds clustering around those outcomes. This range aligns with mid-May climatology at the official Seoul station, where historical minima typically fall between 12°C and 16°C amid transitioning spring patterns. Key variables include potential shifts in cloud cover that could enhance or limit radiative cooling, southerly warm-air advection, and urban heat retention effects, all of which introduce model divergence and explain the broad distribution across 14–17°C. Traders are monitoring the next KMA short-range update for refined guidance on these atmospheric drivers ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on May 20?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 20?
16°C 37%
15°C 21%
14°C 20%
17°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
12°C or below
2%
13°C
2%
14°C
21%
15°C
21%
16°C
37%
17°C
21%
18°C
5%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
16°C 37%
15°C 21%
14°C 20%
17°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
12°C or below
$25 Vol.
2%
13°C
$10 Vol.
2%
14°C
$59 Vol.
21%
15°C
$25 Vol.
21%
16°C
$56 Vol.
37%
17°C
$18 Vol.
21%
18°C
$10 Vol.
5%
19°C
$256 Vol.
2%
20°C
$80 Vol.
3%
21°C
$54 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$63 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models indicate Seoul overnight lows centered near 15–16°C for May 20 under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds, supporting the market-implied odds clustering around those outcomes. This range aligns with mid-May climatology at the official Seoul station, where historical minima typically fall between 12°C and 16°C amid transitioning spring patterns. Key variables include potential shifts in cloud cover that could enhance or limit radiative cooling, southerly warm-air advection, and urban heat retention effects, all of which introduce model divergence and explain the broad distribution across 14–17°C. Traders are monitoring the next KMA short-range update for refined guidance on these atmospheric drivers ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$656End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models indicate Seoul overnight lows centered near 15–16°C for May 20 under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds, supporting the market-implied odds clustering around those outcomes. This range aligns with mid-May climatology at the official Seoul station, where historical minima typically fall between 12°C and 16°C amid transitioning spring patterns. Key variables include potential shifts in cloud cover that could enhance or limit radiative cooling, southerly warm-air advection, and urban heat retention effects, all of which introduce model divergence and explain the broad distribution across 14–17°C. Traders are monitoring the next KMA short-range update for refined guidance on these atmospheric drivers ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$656End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSICurrent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models indicate Seoul overnight lows centered near 15–16°C for May 20 under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds, supporting the market-implied odds clustering around those outcomes. This range aligns with mid-May climatology at the official Seoul station, where historical minima typically fall between 12°C and 16°C amid transitioning spring patterns. Key variables include potential shifts in cloud cover that could enhance or limit radiative cooling, southerly warm-air advection, and urban heat retention effects, all of which introduce model divergence and explain the broad distribution across 14–17°C. Traders are monitoring the next KMA short-range update for refined guidance on these atmospheric drivers ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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