Recent Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts project a Paris overnight low of 5-7°C on May 16 amid an unusual mid-May cool spell driven by persistent northerly airflow and overcast skies limiting daytime heating, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 4-7°C outcomes. Trader sentiment reflects model spread, with slight edge to 4°C from scenarios of partial clearing enabling radiative cooling, while urban heat island effects and variable winds could nudge toward 6-7°C; this is well below climatological norms of 9-10°C for mid-May. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence and exact timing of any showers, with new model runs expected daily through resolution at Paris-Le Bourget Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on May 16?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 16?
6°C 30%
7°C 17%
5°C 15%
4°C 7%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
0°C or below
1%
1°C
3%
2°C
3%
3°C
20%
4°C
7%
5°C
14%
6°C
24%
7°C
21%
8°C
5%
9°C
7%
10°C or higher
2%
6°C 30%
7°C 17%
5°C 15%
4°C 7%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
0°C or below
$28 Vol.
1%
1°C
$35 Vol.
3%
2°C
$27 Vol.
3%
3°C
$15 Vol.
20%
4°C
$0 Vol.
7%
5°C
$5 Vol.
14%
6°C
$3 Vol.
24%
7°C
$11 Vol.
21%
8°C
$25 Vol.
5%
9°C
$14 Vol.
7%
10°C or higher
$397 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts project a Paris overnight low of 5-7°C on May 16 amid an unusual mid-May cool spell driven by persistent northerly airflow and overcast skies limiting daytime heating, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 4-7°C outcomes. Trader sentiment reflects model spread, with slight edge to 4°C from scenarios of partial clearing enabling radiative cooling, while urban heat island effects and variable winds could nudge toward 6-7°C; this is well below climatological norms of 9-10°C for mid-May. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence and exact timing of any showers, with new model runs expected daily through resolution at Paris-Le Bourget Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$548End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts project a Paris overnight low of 5-7°C on May 16 amid an unusual mid-May cool spell driven by persistent northerly airflow and overcast skies limiting daytime heating, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 4-7°C outcomes. Trader sentiment reflects model spread, with slight edge to 4°C from scenarios of partial clearing enabling radiative cooling, while urban heat island effects and variable winds could nudge toward 6-7°C; this is well below climatological norms of 9-10°C for mid-May. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence and exact timing of any showers, with new model runs expected daily through resolution at Paris-Le Bourget Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$548End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts project a Paris overnight low of 5-7°C on May 16 amid an unusual mid-May cool spell driven by persistent northerly airflow and overcast skies limiting daytime heating, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 4-7°C outcomes. Trader sentiment reflects model spread, with slight edge to 4°C from scenarios of partial clearing enabling radiative cooling, while urban heat island effects and variable winds could nudge toward 6-7°C; this is well below climatological norms of 9-10°C for mid-May. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence and exact timing of any showers, with new model runs expected daily through resolution at Paris-Le Bourget Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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