Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a lowest temperature of 7°C (39%) or 8°C (28.5%) in Paris today, driven by Météo-France forecasts showing early morning lows in the 7–8°C range amid overcast skies and scattered showers on Ascension Day. This positioning stems from a persistent northerly airflow ushering cool Arctic air into Île-de-France, part of a broader unstable pattern since May 11 that has already delivered sub-5°C minima on May 12 at Paris-Montsouris observatory. Cloud cover limits radiative cooling compared to clearer prior nights, with ensemble models like ECMWF clustering tightly around 7°C; however, brief clear intervals could nudge toward 6°C (16.5%). Monitor hourly Météo-France bulletins and official daily minimum from the Montsouris station for resolution, as urban heat and precipitation timing add uncertainty to this below-normal May outlook (climatological average ~9°C).
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on May 14?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 14?
7°C 50%
5°C 30.4%
8°C 17%
6°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
1°C or below
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
19%
6°C
16%
7°C
61%
8°C
13%
7°C 50%
5°C 30.4%
8°C 17%
6°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
1°C or below
$258 Vol.
<1%
2°C
$304 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$123 Vol.
1%
4°C
$351 Vol.
1%
5°C
$456 Vol.
19%
6°C
$206 Vol.
16%
7°C
$133 Vol.
61%
8°C
$130 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a lowest temperature of 7°C (39%) or 8°C (28.5%) in Paris today, driven by Météo-France forecasts showing early morning lows in the 7–8°C range amid overcast skies and scattered showers on Ascension Day. This positioning stems from a persistent northerly airflow ushering cool Arctic air into Île-de-France, part of a broader unstable pattern since May 11 that has already delivered sub-5°C minima on May 12 at Paris-Montsouris observatory. Cloud cover limits radiative cooling compared to clearer prior nights, with ensemble models like ECMWF clustering tightly around 7°C; however, brief clear intervals could nudge toward 6°C (16.5%). Monitor hourly Météo-France bulletins and official daily minimum from the Montsouris station for resolution, as urban heat and precipitation timing add uncertainty to this below-normal May outlook (climatological average ~9°C).
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$8,289End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a lowest temperature of 7°C (39%) or 8°C (28.5%) in Paris today, driven by Météo-France forecasts showing early morning lows in the 7–8°C range amid overcast skies and scattered showers on Ascension Day. This positioning stems from a persistent northerly airflow ushering cool Arctic air into Île-de-France, part of a broader unstable pattern since May 11 that has already delivered sub-5°C minima on May 12 at Paris-Montsouris observatory. Cloud cover limits radiative cooling compared to clearer prior nights, with ensemble models like ECMWF clustering tightly around 7°C; however, brief clear intervals could nudge toward 6°C (16.5%). Monitor hourly Météo-France bulletins and official daily minimum from the Montsouris station for resolution, as urban heat and precipitation timing add uncertainty to this below-normal May outlook (climatological average ~9°C).
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,289End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a lowest temperature of 7°C (39%) or 8°C (28.5%) in Paris today, driven by Météo-France forecasts showing early morning lows in the 7–8°C range amid overcast skies and scattered showers on Ascension Day. This positioning stems from a persistent northerly airflow ushering cool Arctic air into Île-de-France, part of a broader unstable pattern since May 11 that has already delivered sub-5°C minima on May 12 at Paris-Montsouris observatory. Cloud cover limits radiative cooling compared to clearer prior nights, with ensemble models like ECMWF clustering tightly around 7°C; however, brief clear intervals could nudge toward 6°C (16.5%). Monitor hourly Météo-France bulletins and official daily minimum from the Montsouris station for resolution, as urban heat and precipitation timing add uncertainty to this below-normal May outlook (climatological average ~9°C).
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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