Global seismic monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records multiple magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes each day on average, driven by ongoing tectonic plate movements along major fault systems. This baseline activity supports the market's strong implied probability exceeding 94% for more than nine such events during the June 8–14 window, consistent with annual totals of roughly 1,500–2,000 events in the 5–5.9 range alone. Recent confirmed activity, including a magnitude 7.8 event offshore the Philippines on June 8, aligns with typical weekly patterns. A sudden global quiet period would be required to challenge this outcome, though such lulls are historically rare given the steady release of stress along subduction zones and transform boundaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
>9 95%
8 3.5%
9 2.6%
7 <1%
$26,288 Vol.
$26,288 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
1%
7
1%
8
3%
9
3%
>9
95%
>9 95%
8 3.5%
9 2.6%
7 <1%
$26,288 Vol.
$26,288 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
≤3
$3,314 Vol.
<1%
4
$2,340 Vol.
<1%
5
$3,737 Vol.
<1%
6
$4,037 Vol.
1%
7
$2,373 Vol.
1%
8
$2,496 Vol.
3%
9
$2,579 Vol.
3%
>9
$5,901 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records multiple magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes each day on average, driven by ongoing tectonic plate movements along major fault systems. This baseline activity supports the market's strong implied probability exceeding 94% for more than nine such events during the June 8–14 window, consistent with annual totals of roughly 1,500–2,000 events in the 5–5.9 range alone. Recent confirmed activity, including a magnitude 7.8 event offshore the Philippines on June 8, aligns with typical weekly patterns. A sudden global quiet period would be required to challenge this outcome, though such lulls are historically rare given the steady release of stress along subduction zones and transform boundaries.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$26,288End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records multiple magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes each day on average, driven by ongoing tectonic plate movements along major fault systems. This baseline activity supports the market's strong implied probability exceeding 94% for more than nine such events during the June 8–14 window, consistent with annual totals of roughly 1,500–2,000 events in the 5–5.9 range alone. Recent confirmed activity, including a magnitude 7.8 event offshore the Philippines on June 8, aligns with typical weekly patterns. A sudden global quiet period would be required to challenge this outcome, though such lulls are historically rare given the steady release of stress along subduction zones and transform boundaries.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$26,288End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records multiple magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes each day on average, driven by ongoing tectonic plate movements along major fault systems. This baseline activity supports the market's strong implied probability exceeding 94% for more than nine such events during the June 8–14 window, consistent with annual totals of roughly 1,500–2,000 events in the 5–5.9 range alone. Recent confirmed activity, including a magnitude 7.8 event offshore the Philippines on June 8, aligns with typical weekly patterns. A sudden global quiet period would be required to challenge this outcome, though such lulls are historically rare given the steady release of stress along subduction zones and transform boundaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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