Recent ensemble forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate peak daytime temperatures in Taipei on May 18 will likely reach 31–32°C, driven by a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong solar insolation, and efficient boundary-layer heating amid moderate southeasterly flow. These conditions align with mid-May climatology, where typical maxima hover near 29–30°C but can exceed 32°C under suppressed convection. Key uncertainties differentiating nearby outcomes include the timing and extent of afternoon sea-breeze advection or localized cumulus development, which could cap readings at 30–31°C, versus drier mid-level air allowing brief excursions to 33°C or higher. Updated model runs and official observations through evening will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on May 18?
Highest temperature in Taipei on May 18?
32°C 35%
31°C 26%
30°C 16%
33°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
5%
30°C
16%
31°C
26%
32°C
35%
33°C
16%
34°C or higher
8%
32°C 35%
31°C 26%
30°C 16%
33°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
24°C or below
$908 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$879 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$985 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,009 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,118 Vol.
2%
29°C
$539 Vol.
5%
30°C
$576 Vol.
16%
31°C
$740 Vol.
26%
32°C
$604 Vol.
35%
33°C
$821 Vol.
16%
34°C or higher
$1,405 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate peak daytime temperatures in Taipei on May 18 will likely reach 31–32°C, driven by a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong solar insolation, and efficient boundary-layer heating amid moderate southeasterly flow. These conditions align with mid-May climatology, where typical maxima hover near 29–30°C but can exceed 32°C under suppressed convection. Key uncertainties differentiating nearby outcomes include the timing and extent of afternoon sea-breeze advection or localized cumulus development, which could cap readings at 30–31°C, versus drier mid-level air allowing brief excursions to 33°C or higher. Updated model runs and official observations through evening will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$9,573End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate peak daytime temperatures in Taipei on May 18 will likely reach 31–32°C, driven by a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong solar insolation, and efficient boundary-layer heating amid moderate southeasterly flow. These conditions align with mid-May climatology, where typical maxima hover near 29–30°C but can exceed 32°C under suppressed convection. Key uncertainties differentiating nearby outcomes include the timing and extent of afternoon sea-breeze advection or localized cumulus development, which could cap readings at 30–31°C, versus drier mid-level air allowing brief excursions to 33°C or higher. Updated model runs and official observations through evening will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,573End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSRecent ensemble forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate peak daytime temperatures in Taipei on May 18 will likely reach 31–32°C, driven by a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong solar insolation, and efficient boundary-layer heating amid moderate southeasterly flow. These conditions align with mid-May climatology, where typical maxima hover near 29–30°C but can exceed 32°C under suppressed convection. Key uncertainties differentiating nearby outcomes include the timing and extent of afternoon sea-breeze advection or localized cumulus development, which could cap readings at 30–31°C, versus drier mid-level air allowing brief excursions to 33°C or higher. Updated model runs and official observations through evening will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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