Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles indicate scattered showers and elevated humidity across the Pearl River Delta on May 19, which should moderate daytime heating and keep the most probable maximum near 28–29°C. In mid-May the advancing East Asian monsoon typically boosts convective activity and cloud cover over Shenzhen, trimming solar insolation by 2–3°C relative to clear-sky potential. Historical May climatology places average highs around 29.5°C, yet the current ensemble spread favors the cooler side of that range because of lingering moisture and variable timing of afternoon thunderstorms. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 28°C and 30°C reflects this genuine uncertainty in precipitation intensity, with official Bao’an Airport observations scheduled to resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 19?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 19?
29°C 29%
28°C 24%
30°C 22%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
8%
28°C
24%
29°C
29%
30°C
22%
31°C
7%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 29%
28°C 24%
30°C 22%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
23°C or below
$22 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$33 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$320 Vol.
1%
26°C
$38 Vol.
4%
27°C
$5 Vol.
8%
28°C
$64 Vol.
24%
29°C
$28 Vol.
29%
30°C
$16 Vol.
22%
31°C
$84 Vol.
7%
32°C
$22 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$149 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles indicate scattered showers and elevated humidity across the Pearl River Delta on May 19, which should moderate daytime heating and keep the most probable maximum near 28–29°C. In mid-May the advancing East Asian monsoon typically boosts convective activity and cloud cover over Shenzhen, trimming solar insolation by 2–3°C relative to clear-sky potential. Historical May climatology places average highs around 29.5°C, yet the current ensemble spread favors the cooler side of that range because of lingering moisture and variable timing of afternoon thunderstorms. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 28°C and 30°C reflects this genuine uncertainty in precipitation intensity, with official Bao’an Airport observations scheduled to resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$781End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles indicate scattered showers and elevated humidity across the Pearl River Delta on May 19, which should moderate daytime heating and keep the most probable maximum near 28–29°C. In mid-May the advancing East Asian monsoon typically boosts convective activity and cloud cover over Shenzhen, trimming solar insolation by 2–3°C relative to clear-sky potential. Historical May climatology places average highs around 29.5°C, yet the current ensemble spread favors the cooler side of that range because of lingering moisture and variable timing of afternoon thunderstorms. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 28°C and 30°C reflects this genuine uncertainty in precipitation intensity, with official Bao’an Airport observations scheduled to resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$781End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZForecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles indicate scattered showers and elevated humidity across the Pearl River Delta on May 19, which should moderate daytime heating and keep the most probable maximum near 28–29°C. In mid-May the advancing East Asian monsoon typically boosts convective activity and cloud cover over Shenzhen, trimming solar insolation by 2–3°C relative to clear-sky potential. Historical May climatology places average highs around 29.5°C, yet the current ensemble spread favors the cooler side of that range because of lingering moisture and variable timing of afternoon thunderstorms. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 28°C and 30°C reflects this genuine uncertainty in precipitation intensity, with official Bao’an Airport observations scheduled to resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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