Recent forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a peak temperature of 26–28°C for Shanghai on May 19, driven by southerly flow and reduced cloud cover that favors daytime warming. This consensus has positioned the 27°C-or-higher outcome as the market leader at 66.5% implied probability, consistent with mid-May climatological averages near 24–25°C but elevated by the latest model runs. Traders are monitoring upcoming CMA updates and ECMWF ensemble guidance for any adjustments in steering patterns or moisture that could shift the maximum by even one degree, while historical May highs in the 22–28°C range underscore the narrow resolution window around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 19?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 19?
27°C or higher 73%
26°C 19%
25°C 7%
24°C 2.1%
NEW
$12,174 Vol.
NEW
$12,174 Vol.
May 19, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
7%
26°C
19%
27°C or higher
73%
27°C or higher 73%
26°C 19%
25°C 7%
24°C 2.1%
NEW
$12,174 Vol.
NEW
$12,174 Vol.
May 19, 2026
17°C or below
$768 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$682 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$635 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$631 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$775 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,026 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,998 Vol.
2%
24°C
$1,869 Vol.
2%
25°C
$1,417 Vol.
7%
26°C
$729 Vol.
19%
27°C or higher
$1,678 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a peak temperature of 26–28°C for Shanghai on May 19, driven by southerly flow and reduced cloud cover that favors daytime warming. This consensus has positioned the 27°C-or-higher outcome as the market leader at 66.5% implied probability, consistent with mid-May climatological averages near 24–25°C but elevated by the latest model runs. Traders are monitoring upcoming CMA updates and ECMWF ensemble guidance for any adjustments in steering patterns or moisture that could shift the maximum by even one degree, while historical May highs in the 22–28°C range underscore the narrow resolution window around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$12,174End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a peak temperature of 26–28°C for Shanghai on May 19, driven by southerly flow and reduced cloud cover that favors daytime warming. This consensus has positioned the 27°C-or-higher outcome as the market leader at 66.5% implied probability, consistent with mid-May climatological averages near 24–25°C but elevated by the latest model runs. Traders are monitoring upcoming CMA updates and ECMWF ensemble guidance for any adjustments in steering patterns or moisture that could shift the maximum by even one degree, while historical May highs in the 22–28°C range underscore the narrow resolution window around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,174End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDRecent forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a peak temperature of 26–28°C for Shanghai on May 19, driven by southerly flow and reduced cloud cover that favors daytime warming. This consensus has positioned the 27°C-or-higher outcome as the market leader at 66.5% implied probability, consistent with mid-May climatological averages near 24–25°C but elevated by the latest model runs. Traders are monitoring upcoming CMA updates and ECMWF ensemble guidance for any adjustments in steering patterns or moisture that could shift the maximum by even one degree, while historical May highs in the 22–28°C range underscore the narrow resolution window around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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