Recent consensus from China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF forecast ensembles points to persistent cloud cover and scattered showers across the Pearl River Delta, moderating daytime heating and anchoring Shenzhen’s maximum temperature near 27°C for May 17. This subtropical spring setup, influenced by stable high-pressure patterns and light winds, aligns closely with seasonal norms of 26–28°C while suppressing stronger solar heating that typically drives higher readings. Market-implied odds reflect this tight model agreement, with official observations at the Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport station serving as the resolution source. Minor shifts in cloud timing or localized urban heat effects could still produce a 1°C deviation, though current guidance shows limited scope for such changes before final data release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 17?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 17?
27°C 99.8%
28°C <1%
31°C or higher <1%
21°C or below <1%
$49,316 Vol.
$49,316 Vol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.8%
28°C <1%
31°C or higher <1%
21°C or below <1%
$49,316 Vol.
$49,316 Vol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
$1,761 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,788 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,875 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5,998 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,854 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$5,469 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$11,015 Vol.
100%
28°C
$5,424 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$4,813 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$2,279 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$5,040 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent consensus from China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF forecast ensembles points to persistent cloud cover and scattered showers across the Pearl River Delta, moderating daytime heating and anchoring Shenzhen’s maximum temperature near 27°C for May 17. This subtropical spring setup, influenced by stable high-pressure patterns and light winds, aligns closely with seasonal norms of 26–28°C while suppressing stronger solar heating that typically drives higher readings. Market-implied odds reflect this tight model agreement, with official observations at the Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport station serving as the resolution source. Minor shifts in cloud timing or localized urban heat effects could still produce a 1°C deviation, though current guidance shows limited scope for such changes before final data release.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$49,316End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent consensus from China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF forecast ensembles points to persistent cloud cover and scattered showers across the Pearl River Delta, moderating daytime heating and anchoring Shenzhen’s maximum temperature near 27°C for May 17. This subtropical spring setup, influenced by stable high-pressure patterns and light winds, aligns closely with seasonal norms of 26–28°C while suppressing stronger solar heating that typically drives higher readings. Market-implied odds reflect this tight model agreement, with official observations at the Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport station serving as the resolution source. Minor shifts in cloud timing or localized urban heat effects could still produce a 1°C deviation, though current guidance shows limited scope for such changes before final data release.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$49,316End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZRecent consensus from China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF forecast ensembles points to persistent cloud cover and scattered showers across the Pearl River Delta, moderating daytime heating and anchoring Shenzhen’s maximum temperature near 27°C for May 17. This subtropical spring setup, influenced by stable high-pressure patterns and light winds, aligns closely with seasonal norms of 26–28°C while suppressing stronger solar heating that typically drives higher readings. Market-implied odds reflect this tight model agreement, with official observations at the Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport station serving as the resolution source. Minor shifts in cloud timing or localized urban heat effects could still produce a 1°C deviation, though current guidance shows limited scope for such changes before final data release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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