Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate a Shanghai high temperature near 27-28°C on May 15 under building high pressure and light southerly winds, yet trader consensus clusters tightly at 24-26°C implied probabilities, driven by recent model overestimation—May 13's actual 23°C at Pudong Airport fell short of prior projections amid unexpected cloud cover and coastal sea breeze effects. This scientific uncertainty, amplified by variable low-level moisture and potential afternoon convection, differentiates the leading outcomes, with historical mid-May averages around 24°C providing baseline context. China Meteorological Administration updates later today and real-time observations will refine trajectories before resolution based on official airport records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
25°C 31%
24°C 27%
26°C 20%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
13%
24°C
27%
25°C
31%
26°C
20%
27°C
10%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 31%
24°C 27%
26°C 20%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
$366 Vol.
1%
21°C
$943 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,043 Vol.
2%
23°C
$764 Vol.
13%
24°C
$397 Vol.
27%
25°C
$725 Vol.
31%
26°C
$385 Vol.
20%
27°C
$647 Vol.
10%
28°C
$1,188 Vol.
3%
29°C
$756 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$651 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate a Shanghai high temperature near 27-28°C on May 15 under building high pressure and light southerly winds, yet trader consensus clusters tightly at 24-26°C implied probabilities, driven by recent model overestimation—May 13's actual 23°C at Pudong Airport fell short of prior projections amid unexpected cloud cover and coastal sea breeze effects. This scientific uncertainty, amplified by variable low-level moisture and potential afternoon convection, differentiates the leading outcomes, with historical mid-May averages around 24°C providing baseline context. China Meteorological Administration updates later today and real-time observations will refine trajectories before resolution based on official airport records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$7,866End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate a Shanghai high temperature near 27-28°C on May 15 under building high pressure and light southerly winds, yet trader consensus clusters tightly at 24-26°C implied probabilities, driven by recent model overestimation—May 13's actual 23°C at Pudong Airport fell short of prior projections amid unexpected cloud cover and coastal sea breeze effects. This scientific uncertainty, amplified by variable low-level moisture and potential afternoon convection, differentiates the leading outcomes, with historical mid-May averages around 24°C providing baseline context. China Meteorological Administration updates later today and real-time observations will refine trajectories before resolution based on official airport records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,866End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate a Shanghai high temperature near 27-28°C on May 15 under building high pressure and light southerly winds, yet trader consensus clusters tightly at 24-26°C implied probabilities, driven by recent model overestimation—May 13's actual 23°C at Pudong Airport fell short of prior projections amid unexpected cloud cover and coastal sea breeze effects. This scientific uncertainty, amplified by variable low-level moisture and potential afternoon convection, differentiates the leading outcomes, with historical mid-May averages around 24°C providing baseline context. China Meteorological Administration updates later today and real-time observations will refine trajectories before resolution based on official airport records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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