Latest ensemble guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows Paris under a cool maritime air mass on May 19, with extensive cloud cover and light west-southwest winds expected to limit daytime heating. These runs converge on a most probable daily maximum between 17 °C and 18 °C, producing the tight market split at 31.5 % and 34.0 % respectively. Minor differences in afternoon clearing or boundary-layer moisture could shift the peak by a degree either way, which explains the secondary 15.5 % and 13.5 % prices on 19 °C and 16 °C. Historical mid-May climatology supports this range, yet current model spread keeps lower and higher outcomes under 5 % each. Updated runs tomorrow morning will tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on May 19?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 19?
18°C 36%
17°C 32%
19°C 16%
16°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
14%
17°C
32%
18°C
36%
19°C
16%
20°C
3%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
1%
18°C 36%
17°C 32%
19°C 16%
16°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
12°C or below
$360 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$958 Vol.
1%
15°C
$490 Vol.
3%
16°C
$477 Vol.
14%
17°C
$269 Vol.
32%
18°C
$337 Vol.
36%
19°C
$587 Vol.
16%
20°C
$190 Vol.
3%
21°C
$255 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$219 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows Paris under a cool maritime air mass on May 19, with extensive cloud cover and light west-southwest winds expected to limit daytime heating. These runs converge on a most probable daily maximum between 17 °C and 18 °C, producing the tight market split at 31.5 % and 34.0 % respectively. Minor differences in afternoon clearing or boundary-layer moisture could shift the peak by a degree either way, which explains the secondary 15.5 % and 13.5 % prices on 19 °C and 16 °C. Historical mid-May climatology supports this range, yet current model spread keeps lower and higher outcomes under 5 % each. Updated runs tomorrow morning will tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,283End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows Paris under a cool maritime air mass on May 19, with extensive cloud cover and light west-southwest winds expected to limit daytime heating. These runs converge on a most probable daily maximum between 17 °C and 18 °C, producing the tight market split at 31.5 % and 34.0 % respectively. Minor differences in afternoon clearing or boundary-layer moisture could shift the peak by a degree either way, which explains the secondary 15.5 % and 13.5 % prices on 19 °C and 16 °C. Historical mid-May climatology supports this range, yet current model spread keeps lower and higher outcomes under 5 % each. Updated runs tomorrow morning will tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,283End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ETLatest ensemble guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows Paris under a cool maritime air mass on May 19, with extensive cloud cover and light west-southwest winds expected to limit daytime heating. These runs converge on a most probable daily maximum between 17 °C and 18 °C, producing the tight market split at 31.5 % and 34.0 % respectively. Minor differences in afternoon clearing or boundary-layer moisture could shift the peak by a degree either way, which explains the secondary 15.5 % and 13.5 % prices on 19 °C and 16 °C. Historical mid-May climatology supports this range, yet current model spread keeps lower and higher outcomes under 5 % each. Updated runs tomorrow morning will tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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