Recent European model guidance, including runs from Météo-France and ECMWF, has positioned the Paris daily maximum for May 18 near 15–16 °C, driving the tight 44.5 % and 35.5 % market shares on those outcomes. Springtime steering patterns over northern France favor a mix of Atlantic maritime air and modest daytime solar heating, with partial cloud cover and light southwesterly winds limiting further warming. A single degree hinges on precise forecasts of afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing; stronger northerly flow or increased low-level stratus would cap readings at 15 °C, while clearer skies could briefly push to 17 °C. These probabilities align with historical mid-May climatology at Paris-Le Bourget, where maxima cluster between 14 °C and 18 °C, underscoring the narrow uncertainty range traders are pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on May 18?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 18?
16°C 44%
15°C 35%
17°C 13%
14°C 7%
NEW
$24,053 Vol.
NEW
$24,053 Vol.
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
7%
15°C
35%
16°C
44%
17°C
13%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
<1%
16°C 44%
15°C 35%
17°C 13%
14°C 7%
NEW
$24,053 Vol.
NEW
$24,053 Vol.
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
$1,718 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$3,369 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,040 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,813 Vol.
1%
13°C
$1,466 Vol.
1%
14°C
$3,239 Vol.
7%
15°C
$1,606 Vol.
35%
16°C
$3,503 Vol.
44%
17°C
$2,678 Vol.
13%
18°C
$1,497 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$2,147 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent European model guidance, including runs from Météo-France and ECMWF, has positioned the Paris daily maximum for May 18 near 15–16 °C, driving the tight 44.5 % and 35.5 % market shares on those outcomes. Springtime steering patterns over northern France favor a mix of Atlantic maritime air and modest daytime solar heating, with partial cloud cover and light southwesterly winds limiting further warming. A single degree hinges on precise forecasts of afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing; stronger northerly flow or increased low-level stratus would cap readings at 15 °C, while clearer skies could briefly push to 17 °C. These probabilities align with historical mid-May climatology at Paris-Le Bourget, where maxima cluster between 14 °C and 18 °C, underscoring the narrow uncertainty range traders are pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$24,053End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent European model guidance, including runs from Météo-France and ECMWF, has positioned the Paris daily maximum for May 18 near 15–16 °C, driving the tight 44.5 % and 35.5 % market shares on those outcomes. Springtime steering patterns over northern France favor a mix of Atlantic maritime air and modest daytime solar heating, with partial cloud cover and light southwesterly winds limiting further warming. A single degree hinges on precise forecasts of afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing; stronger northerly flow or increased low-level stratus would cap readings at 15 °C, while clearer skies could briefly push to 17 °C. These probabilities align with historical mid-May climatology at Paris-Le Bourget, where maxima cluster between 14 °C and 18 °C, underscoring the narrow uncertainty range traders are pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$24,053End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent European model guidance, including runs from Météo-France and ECMWF, has positioned the Paris daily maximum for May 18 near 15–16 °C, driving the tight 44.5 % and 35.5 % market shares on those outcomes. Springtime steering patterns over northern France favor a mix of Atlantic maritime air and modest daytime solar heating, with partial cloud cover and light southwesterly winds limiting further warming. A single degree hinges on precise forecasts of afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing; stronger northerly flow or increased low-level stratus would cap readings at 15 °C, while clearer skies could briefly push to 17 °C. These probabilities align with historical mid-May climatology at Paris-Le Bourget, where maxima cluster between 14 °C and 18 °C, underscoring the narrow uncertainty range traders are pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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