Latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts for Paris on May 19 indicate an overnight minimum near 10–11°C, driven by a weak high-pressure ridge allowing moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-May, when average lows range 9–11°C, while the tight spread between the 10°C and 11°C brackets reflects genuine model uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing. New high-resolution runs expected within 24 hours, along with Météo-France guidance, will refine whether subtle Atlantic advection or clearer conditions push the reading toward either side of the seasonal baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on May 19?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 19?
10°C 31%
11°C 30%
12°C 14%
9°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
5%
9°C
11%
10°C
26%
11°C
30%
12°C
14%
13°C
5%
14°C
1%
15°C or higher
1%
10°C 31%
11°C 30%
12°C 14%
9°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
5°C or below
$15 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$243 Vol.
1%
7°C
$51 Vol.
1%
8°C
$20 Vol.
5%
9°C
$18 Vol.
11%
10°C
$30 Vol.
26%
11°C
$27 Vol.
30%
12°C
$16 Vol.
14%
13°C
$28 Vol.
5%
14°C
$79 Vol.
1%
15°C or higher
$266 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts for Paris on May 19 indicate an overnight minimum near 10–11°C, driven by a weak high-pressure ridge allowing moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-May, when average lows range 9–11°C, while the tight spread between the 10°C and 11°C brackets reflects genuine model uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing. New high-resolution runs expected within 24 hours, along with Météo-France guidance, will refine whether subtle Atlantic advection or clearer conditions push the reading toward either side of the seasonal baseline.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$793End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts for Paris on May 19 indicate an overnight minimum near 10–11°C, driven by a weak high-pressure ridge allowing moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-May, when average lows range 9–11°C, while the tight spread between the 10°C and 11°C brackets reflects genuine model uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing. New high-resolution runs expected within 24 hours, along with Météo-France guidance, will refine whether subtle Atlantic advection or clearer conditions push the reading toward either side of the seasonal baseline.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$793End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETLatest ECMWF ensemble forecasts for Paris on May 19 indicate an overnight minimum near 10–11°C, driven by a weak high-pressure ridge allowing moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-May, when average lows range 9–11°C, while the tight spread between the 10°C and 11°C brackets reflects genuine model uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing. New high-resolution runs expected within 24 hours, along with Météo-France guidance, will refine whether subtle Atlantic advection or clearer conditions push the reading toward either side of the seasonal baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions