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icon for Highest temperature in Moscow on May 15?

Highest temperature in Moscow on May 15?

icon for Highest temperature in Moscow on May 15?

Highest temperature in Moscow on May 15?

May 14

May 15

May 14

May 15

20°C 34%

21°C 21%

19°C 20%

22°C 11.8%

Polymarket
NEW

20°C 34%

21°C 21%

19°C 20%

22°C 11.8%

Polymarket
NEW

16°C or below

$669 Vol.

1%

17°C

$162 Vol.

2%

18°C

$413 Vol.

11%

19°C

$234 Vol.

20%

20°C

$181 Vol.

34%

21°C

$1,161 Vol.

21%

22°C

$1,871 Vol.

12%

23°C

$849 Vol.

4%

24°C

$796 Vol.

1%

25°C

$762 Vol.

1%

26°C or higher

$1,536 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting a high temperature around 19–21°C in Moscow on May 15, driving 20°C (34% implied probability), 19°C (22%), and 21°C (20.5%) as frontrunners amid high uncertainty from spread outcomes. This follows a warming trend after cooler early May highs near 15°C, with May 13 reaching 22°C per observations, influenced by shifting upper-level patterns bringing milder southerly flows. Key variables include cloud cover reducing insolation, light easterly winds limiting mixing, and potential for brief convective showers (0–10% chance per Ventusky), which could cap peaks below 20°C or allow slight intensification. New 12z model runs today may refine odds before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,634
End Date
May 15, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting a high temperature around 19–21°C in Moscow on May 15, driving 20°C (34% implied probability), 19°C (22%), and 21°C (20.5%) as frontrunners amid high uncertainty from spread outcomes. This follows a warming trend after cooler early May highs near 15°C, with May 13 reaching 22°C per observations, influenced by shifting upper-level patterns bringing milder southerly flows. Key variables include cloud cover reducing insolation, light easterly winds limiting mixing, and potential for brief convective showers (0–10% chance per Ventusky), which could cap peaks below 20°C or allow slight intensification. New 12z model runs today may refine odds before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,634
End Date
May 15, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Moscow on May 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "20°C" at 34%, followed by "21°C" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Moscow on May 15?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Moscow on May 15?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Moscow on May 15?" is "20°C" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "21°C" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Moscow on May 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.