Traders are centering bets on National Weather Service forecast models showing a high near 91°F for New York City on May 19, shaped by a strengthening high-pressure ridge and southerly flow that will transport warmer air northward ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Ensemble guidance reveals modest spread from variable afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which keeps the 90–93°F range as the market’s closest cluster while limiting support for readings above 95°F. This setup sits well above the mid-May climatological average of roughly 72°F but remains within historical variability for the region. The next critical update arrives with tonight’s 00Z model cycle, which will refine dew-point profiles and wind trajectories ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 19?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 19?
90-91°F 28%
92-93°F 27%
88-89°F 19%
94-95°F 17%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
81°F or below
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
28%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
17%
96-97°F
3%
98-99°F
2%
100°F or higher
<1%
90-91°F 28%
92-93°F 27%
88-89°F 19%
94-95°F 17%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
81°F or below
$631 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$1,145 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$564 Vol.
3%
86-87°F
$264 Vol.
11%
88-89°F
$280 Vol.
19%
90-91°F
$174 Vol.
28%
92-93°F
$284 Vol.
27%
94-95°F
$164 Vol.
17%
96-97°F
$84 Vol.
3%
98-99°F
$272 Vol.
2%
100°F or higher
$420 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders are centering bets on National Weather Service forecast models showing a high near 91°F for New York City on May 19, shaped by a strengthening high-pressure ridge and southerly flow that will transport warmer air northward ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Ensemble guidance reveals modest spread from variable afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which keeps the 90–93°F range as the market’s closest cluster while limiting support for readings above 95°F. This setup sits well above the mid-May climatological average of roughly 72°F but remains within historical variability for the region. The next critical update arrives with tonight’s 00Z model cycle, which will refine dew-point profiles and wind trajectories ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,282End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders are centering bets on National Weather Service forecast models showing a high near 91°F for New York City on May 19, shaped by a strengthening high-pressure ridge and southerly flow that will transport warmer air northward ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Ensemble guidance reveals modest spread from variable afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which keeps the 90–93°F range as the market’s closest cluster while limiting support for readings above 95°F. This setup sits well above the mid-May climatological average of roughly 72°F but remains within historical variability for the region. The next critical update arrives with tonight’s 00Z model cycle, which will refine dew-point profiles and wind trajectories ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,282End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGATraders are centering bets on National Weather Service forecast models showing a high near 91°F for New York City on May 19, shaped by a strengthening high-pressure ridge and southerly flow that will transport warmer air northward ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Ensemble guidance reveals modest spread from variable afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which keeps the 90–93°F range as the market’s closest cluster while limiting support for readings above 95°F. This setup sits well above the mid-May climatological average of roughly 72°F but remains within historical variability for the region. The next critical update arrives with tonight’s 00Z model cycle, which will refine dew-point profiles and wind trajectories ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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