Recent National Weather Service model runs for the New York metro area point to a ridge of high pressure dominating through May 19, producing light winds and partly cloudy skies that limit radiational cooling overnight. This setup supports a narrow range of minimum temperatures centered on 68–71 °F, explaining why those two bins hold the highest market-implied probabilities at 29.5 % and 28.5 %. Ensemble spread remains modest because dew-point guidance is stable and no strong frontal passage is expected, though a slight shift in cloud cover or wind direction could still nudge the reading one or two degrees either way. Historical May climatology for Central Park places the average low near 55 °F, so the current pattern represents a notably mild deviation driven by the persistent subtropical ridge.