Recent National Weather Service and Global Forecast System model runs point to a daytime high in the low to mid-80s for New York City on May 18, driven by southerly flow advecting milder air masses while partly cloudy skies moderate solar insolation and limit strong surface heating. This consensus supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bins, with traders weighing subtle differences in wind direction, cloud cover timing, and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the peak by a degree or two. Official forecasts emphasize typical May variability around the seasonal baseline of 76°F, with resolution hinging on the highest observed reading at Central Park.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 18?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 18?
84-85°F 30%
82-83°F 24%
80-81°F 20%
86-87°F 11%
NEW
$21,013 Vol.
NEW
$21,013 Vol.
May 18, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
24%
84-85°F
30%
86-87°F
11%
88°F or higher
5%
84-85°F 30%
82-83°F 24%
80-81°F 20%
86-87°F 11%
NEW
$21,013 Vol.
NEW
$21,013 Vol.
May 18, 2026
69°F or below
$807 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$1,100 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$3,584 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$2,117 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$3,490 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$2,108 Vol.
4%
80-81°F
$1,119 Vol.
20%
82-83°F
$1,322 Vol.
24%
84-85°F
$2,416 Vol.
30%
86-87°F
$841 Vol.
11%
88°F or higher
$2,144 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and Global Forecast System model runs point to a daytime high in the low to mid-80s for New York City on May 18, driven by southerly flow advecting milder air masses while partly cloudy skies moderate solar insolation and limit strong surface heating. This consensus supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bins, with traders weighing subtle differences in wind direction, cloud cover timing, and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the peak by a degree or two. Official forecasts emphasize typical May variability around the seasonal baseline of 76°F, with resolution hinging on the highest observed reading at Central Park.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$21,013End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and Global Forecast System model runs point to a daytime high in the low to mid-80s for New York City on May 18, driven by southerly flow advecting milder air masses while partly cloudy skies moderate solar insolation and limit strong surface heating. This consensus supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bins, with traders weighing subtle differences in wind direction, cloud cover timing, and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the peak by a degree or two. Official forecasts emphasize typical May variability around the seasonal baseline of 76°F, with resolution hinging on the highest observed reading at Central Park.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,013End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGARecent National Weather Service and Global Forecast System model runs point to a daytime high in the low to mid-80s for New York City on May 18, driven by southerly flow advecting milder air masses while partly cloudy skies moderate solar insolation and limit strong surface heating. This consensus supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bins, with traders weighing subtle differences in wind direction, cloud cover timing, and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the peak by a degree or two. Official forecasts emphasize typical May variability around the seasonal baseline of 76°F, with resolution hinging on the highest observed reading at Central Park.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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