Latest forecast guidance from European and global models points to a maximum temperature near 19°C in Munich on May 18, underpinning the 43.5% market-implied probability for that outcome and the clustering around 18–20°C brackets. Mid-May climatology for the region shows average daily highs of 17–19°C, with current conditions reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge allowing modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with limited risk of significant warming or cooling before the daily peak measurement at official stations such as Munich Airport. Traders are closely monitoring the next DWD and ECMWF model runs for any adjustments to boundary-layer temperatures ahead of the 24-hour resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on May 18?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 18?
19°C 44%
20°C 26%
18°C 25%
21°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
25%
19°C
44%
20°C
26%
21°C
6%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 44%
20°C 26%
18°C 25%
21°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$349 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$191 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$320 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$499 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,464 Vol.
4%
18°C
$1,045 Vol.
25%
19°C
$517 Vol.
44%
20°C
$769 Vol.
26%
21°C
$512 Vol.
6%
22°C
$726 Vol.
1%
23°C or higher
$399 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast guidance from European and global models points to a maximum temperature near 19°C in Munich on May 18, underpinning the 43.5% market-implied probability for that outcome and the clustering around 18–20°C brackets. Mid-May climatology for the region shows average daily highs of 17–19°C, with current conditions reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge allowing modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with limited risk of significant warming or cooling before the daily peak measurement at official stations such as Munich Airport. Traders are closely monitoring the next DWD and ECMWF model runs for any adjustments to boundary-layer temperatures ahead of the 24-hour resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$6,792End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast guidance from European and global models points to a maximum temperature near 19°C in Munich on May 18, underpinning the 43.5% market-implied probability for that outcome and the clustering around 18–20°C brackets. Mid-May climatology for the region shows average daily highs of 17–19°C, with current conditions reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge allowing modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with limited risk of significant warming or cooling before the daily peak measurement at official stations such as Munich Airport. Traders are closely monitoring the next DWD and ECMWF model runs for any adjustments to boundary-layer temperatures ahead of the 24-hour resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,792End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMLatest forecast guidance from European and global models points to a maximum temperature near 19°C in Munich on May 18, underpinning the 43.5% market-implied probability for that outcome and the clustering around 18–20°C brackets. Mid-May climatology for the region shows average daily highs of 17–19°C, with current conditions reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge allowing modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with limited risk of significant warming or cooling before the daily peak measurement at official stations such as Munich Airport. Traders are closely monitoring the next DWD and ECMWF model runs for any adjustments to boundary-layer temperatures ahead of the 24-hour resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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