Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on a daytime maximum near 16°C for Munich on May 17, reflecting a cool polar air mass with limited solar heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning aligns with Deutscher Wetterdienst observations and historical May baselines around 18°C that are currently suppressed by persistent upper-level troughing and weak advection. Trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C captures this strong model agreement, though realistic deviations could arise from faster afternoon clearing that boosts shortwave radiation or a slight warm-sector advance pushing readings to 17°C before sunset. Hourly DWD airport data and final daily maximum reports will confirm resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on May 17?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 17?
16°C 99.8%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
11°C or below <1%
$43,152 Vol.
$43,152 Vol.
May 17, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
100%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 99.8%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
11°C or below <1%
$43,152 Vol.
$43,152 Vol.
May 17, 2026
11°C or below
$591 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,439 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$3,286 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$3,660 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$11,380 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$6,555 Vol.
100%
17°C
$6,026 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,735 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,687 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,771 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$2,801 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on a daytime maximum near 16°C for Munich on May 17, reflecting a cool polar air mass with limited solar heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning aligns with Deutscher Wetterdienst observations and historical May baselines around 18°C that are currently suppressed by persistent upper-level troughing and weak advection. Trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C captures this strong model agreement, though realistic deviations could arise from faster afternoon clearing that boosts shortwave radiation or a slight warm-sector advance pushing readings to 17°C before sunset. Hourly DWD airport data and final daily maximum reports will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$43,152End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on a daytime maximum near 16°C for Munich on May 17, reflecting a cool polar air mass with limited solar heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning aligns with Deutscher Wetterdienst observations and historical May baselines around 18°C that are currently suppressed by persistent upper-level troughing and weak advection. Trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C captures this strong model agreement, though realistic deviations could arise from faster afternoon clearing that boosts shortwave radiation or a slight warm-sector advance pushing readings to 17°C before sunset. Hourly DWD airport data and final daily maximum reports will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$43,152End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMRecent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on a daytime maximum near 16°C for Munich on May 17, reflecting a cool polar air mass with limited solar heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning aligns with Deutscher Wetterdienst observations and historical May baselines around 18°C that are currently suppressed by persistent upper-level troughing and weak advection. Trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C captures this strong model agreement, though realistic deviations could arise from faster afternoon clearing that boosts shortwave radiation or a slight warm-sector advance pushing readings to 17°C before sunset. Hourly DWD airport data and final daily maximum reports will confirm resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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