Current observational data from meteorological stations across Madrid indicate a daytime peak near 22°C under stable high-pressure conditions and light easterly winds, driving the market's overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for this exact outcome. National meteorological agency reports align with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where average highs hover around 23°C but recent model consensus and satellite-derived surface temperatures have kept readings from exceeding that mark. Minor upward revisions in forecast guidance could still allow a brief spike toward 23°C, though sustained clear skies and low humidity limit the realistic scope for such shifts before evening cooling sets in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
22°C 99.7%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
21°C <1%
$52,144 Vol.
$52,144 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
100%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 99.7%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
21°C <1%
$52,144 Vol.
$52,144 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,647 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$5,373 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,602 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$7,643 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$11,096 Vol.
100%
23°C
$9,313 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5,222 Vol.
1%
25°C
$3,788 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,588 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$1,214 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current observational data from meteorological stations across Madrid indicate a daytime peak near 22°C under stable high-pressure conditions and light easterly winds, driving the market's overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for this exact outcome. National meteorological agency reports align with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where average highs hover around 23°C but recent model consensus and satellite-derived surface temperatures have kept readings from exceeding that mark. Minor upward revisions in forecast guidance could still allow a brief spike toward 23°C, though sustained clear skies and low humidity limit the realistic scope for such shifts before evening cooling sets in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$52,144End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current observational data from meteorological stations across Madrid indicate a daytime peak near 22°C under stable high-pressure conditions and light easterly winds, driving the market's overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for this exact outcome. National meteorological agency reports align with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where average highs hover around 23°C but recent model consensus and satellite-derived surface temperatures have kept readings from exceeding that mark. Minor upward revisions in forecast guidance could still allow a brief spike toward 23°C, though sustained clear skies and low humidity limit the realistic scope for such shifts before evening cooling sets in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$52,144End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDCurrent observational data from meteorological stations across Madrid indicate a daytime peak near 22°C under stable high-pressure conditions and light easterly winds, driving the market's overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for this exact outcome. National meteorological agency reports align with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where average highs hover around 23°C but recent model consensus and satellite-derived surface temperatures have kept readings from exceeding that mark. Minor upward revisions in forecast guidance could still allow a brief spike toward 23°C, though sustained clear skies and low humidity limit the realistic scope for such shifts before evening cooling sets in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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