Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate a southerly flow of warmer, moist air across the Korean Peninsula, positioning the 69.5% market-implied probability for a Seoul high of 25°C or above on May 18. Ensemble guidance from global models projects afternoon temperatures settling in the mid-20s Celsius under partly cloudy conditions, aligning with mid-May climatology while elevated by above-average Yellow Sea sea-surface temperatures that enhance heat advection. This setup contrasts with historical daily maxima for the date, which typically range from the low to mid-20s depending on synoptic patterns, and traders are monitoring any late-model adjustments ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 18?
25°C or higher 70%
24°C 24%
23°C 5%
21°C <1%
NEW
$57,544 Vol.
NEW
$57,544 Vol.
May 18, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
5%
24°C
24%
25°C or higher
70%
25°C or higher 70%
24°C 24%
23°C 5%
21°C <1%
NEW
$57,544 Vol.
NEW
$57,544 Vol.
May 18, 2026
15°C or below
$10,869 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$3,255 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$4,920 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,406 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$3,216 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,414 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$6,271 Vol.
1%
22°C
$6,374 Vol.
1%
23°C
$5,846 Vol.
5%
24°C
$2,937 Vol.
24%
25°C or higher
$8,057 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate a southerly flow of warmer, moist air across the Korean Peninsula, positioning the 69.5% market-implied probability for a Seoul high of 25°C or above on May 18. Ensemble guidance from global models projects afternoon temperatures settling in the mid-20s Celsius under partly cloudy conditions, aligning with mid-May climatology while elevated by above-average Yellow Sea sea-surface temperatures that enhance heat advection. This setup contrasts with historical daily maxima for the date, which typically range from the low to mid-20s depending on synoptic patterns, and traders are monitoring any late-model adjustments ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$57,544End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate a southerly flow of warmer, moist air across the Korean Peninsula, positioning the 69.5% market-implied probability for a Seoul high of 25°C or above on May 18. Ensemble guidance from global models projects afternoon temperatures settling in the mid-20s Celsius under partly cloudy conditions, aligning with mid-May climatology while elevated by above-average Yellow Sea sea-surface temperatures that enhance heat advection. This setup contrasts with historical daily maxima for the date, which typically range from the low to mid-20s depending on synoptic patterns, and traders are monitoring any late-model adjustments ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$57,544End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIRecent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate a southerly flow of warmer, moist air across the Korean Peninsula, positioning the 69.5% market-implied probability for a Seoul high of 25°C or above on May 18. Ensemble guidance from global models projects afternoon temperatures settling in the mid-20s Celsius under partly cloudy conditions, aligning with mid-May climatology while elevated by above-average Yellow Sea sea-surface temperatures that enhance heat advection. This setup contrasts with historical daily maxima for the date, which typically range from the low to mid-20s depending on synoptic patterns, and traders are monitoring any late-model adjustments ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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