Recent forecast models from major meteorological agencies indicate Madrid is likely to reach a daily maximum near 33°C on June 11 under sunny skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high-pressure conditions typical for early June. This consensus aligns with the market-implied 47.5% probability on 33°C and supports secondary odds on 32°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling from Atlantic fronts. Historical June maxima average 28–30°C, providing context that current projections sit modestly above climatological norms without entering extreme-heat territory. Updated model runs and official Spanish meteorological briefings in the next 48 hours represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on June 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 11?
33°C 47%
32°C 28%
31°C 11%
34°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
11%
32°C
28%
33°C
47%
34°C
8%
35°C
3%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 47%
32°C 28%
31°C 11%
34°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$50 Vol.
1%
30°C
$20 Vol.
2%
31°C
$15 Vol.
11%
32°C
$32 Vol.
28%
33°C
$95 Vol.
47%
34°C
$28 Vol.
8%
35°C
$20 Vol.
3%
36°C
$254 Vol.
2%
37°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$46 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from major meteorological agencies indicate Madrid is likely to reach a daily maximum near 33°C on June 11 under sunny skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high-pressure conditions typical for early June. This consensus aligns with the market-implied 47.5% probability on 33°C and supports secondary odds on 32°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling from Atlantic fronts. Historical June maxima average 28–30°C, providing context that current projections sit modestly above climatological norms without entering extreme-heat territory. Updated model runs and official Spanish meteorological briefings in the next 48 hours represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$556End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from major meteorological agencies indicate Madrid is likely to reach a daily maximum near 33°C on June 11 under sunny skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high-pressure conditions typical for early June. This consensus aligns with the market-implied 47.5% probability on 33°C and supports secondary odds on 32°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling from Atlantic fronts. Historical June maxima average 28–30°C, providing context that current projections sit modestly above climatological norms without entering extreme-heat territory. Updated model runs and official Spanish meteorological briefings in the next 48 hours represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$556End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from major meteorological agencies indicate Madrid is likely to reach a daily maximum near 33°C on June 11 under sunny skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high-pressure conditions typical for early June. This consensus aligns with the market-implied 47.5% probability on 33°C and supports secondary odds on 32°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling from Atlantic fronts. Historical June maxima average 28–30°C, providing context that current projections sit modestly above climatological norms without entering extreme-heat territory. Updated model runs and official Spanish meteorological briefings in the next 48 hours represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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