Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a mild marine layer influence keeping Los Angeles daytime highs near 68–69°F on May 17, supporting the market’s 60% implied probability for that range. Persistent onshore flow from the Pacific and morning cloud cover are limiting afternoon warming, consistent with typical late-spring climatology along the coastal basin. Updated model guidance shows limited potential for clearing that would push readings into the low 70s, aligning with the lower 18.5% odds on 70–71°F. Traders are weighting these official forecasts heavily, as resolution depends on the highest observed temperature at the primary reporting station. New guidance releases this afternoon could shift positioning if the marine layer erodes faster than expected.