Recent meteorological model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates a daily maximum near 19–20 °C in Istanbul on May 22, driven by moderate southerly flow over the Sea of Marmara and partial cloud cover that limits surface heating. Historical May climatology shows typical highs of 20–22 °C, but current guidance includes a narrow uncertainty band tied to the precise timing of any light showers and local wind shifts around the Bosphorus. These factors create closely matched market-implied odds among the 18–21 °C outcomes, with final resolution depending on official hourly observations rather than forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 22?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 22?
20°C 27%
19°C 27%
18°C 21%
21°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
21%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
16%
22°C
7%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 27%
19°C 27%
18°C 21%
21°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
14°C or below
$72 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$55 Vol.
1%
16°C
$1,020 Vol.
1%
17°C
$61 Vol.
3%
18°C
$47 Vol.
21%
19°C
$48 Vol.
27%
20°C
$59 Vol.
27%
21°C
$104 Vol.
16%
22°C
$42 Vol.
7%
23°C
$32 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$30 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates a daily maximum near 19–20 °C in Istanbul on May 22, driven by moderate southerly flow over the Sea of Marmara and partial cloud cover that limits surface heating. Historical May climatology shows typical highs of 20–22 °C, but current guidance includes a narrow uncertainty band tied to the precise timing of any light showers and local wind shifts around the Bosphorus. These factors create closely matched market-implied odds among the 18–21 °C outcomes, with final resolution depending on official hourly observations rather than forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$1,570End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates a daily maximum near 19–20 °C in Istanbul on May 22, driven by moderate southerly flow over the Sea of Marmara and partial cloud cover that limits surface heating. Historical May climatology shows typical highs of 20–22 °C, but current guidance includes a narrow uncertainty band tied to the precise timing of any light showers and local wind shifts around the Bosphorus. These factors create closely matched market-implied odds among the 18–21 °C outcomes, with final resolution depending on official hourly observations rather than forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,570End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates a daily maximum near 19–20 °C in Istanbul on May 22, driven by moderate southerly flow over the Sea of Marmara and partial cloud cover that limits surface heating. Historical May climatology shows typical highs of 20–22 °C, but current guidance includes a narrow uncertainty band tied to the precise timing of any light showers and local wind shifts around the Bosphorus. These factors create closely matched market-implied odds among the 18–21 °C outcomes, with final resolution depending on official hourly observations rather than forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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