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icon for Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 21?

Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 21?

icon for Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 21?

Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 21?

May 21

May 22

May 21

May 22

20°C 43%

21°C 25%

19°C 16%

22°C 11%

Polymarket
NEW

20°C 43%

21°C 25%

19°C 16%

22°C 11%

Polymarket
NEW

18°C

$735 Vol.

5%

19°C

$446 Vol.

16%

20°C

$381 Vol.

43%

21°C

$275 Vol.

25%

22°C

$488 Vol.

11%

23°C or higher

$1,055 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from regional meteorological models place Istanbul's daily high temperature near 20°C under the influence of a stable high-pressure system and light southerly flow, driving the leading 42.5% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Current surface observations show daytime readings climbing steadily through the morning with minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient warming, consistent with typical late-May climatology for the Bosporus region. Ensemble guidance indicates low likelihood of significant Atlantic frontal passage today, keeping any upward revision to 22°C or higher below 12% combined probability, while overnight cooling limits downside risk to 19°C or below. Traders are watching the next official bulletin from the Turkish State Meteorological Service for final confirmation before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,241
End Date
May 21, 2026
Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 12:08 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from regional meteorological models place Istanbul's daily high temperature near 20°C under the influence of a stable high-pressure system and light southerly flow, driving the leading 42.5% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Current surface observations show daytime readings climbing steadily through the morning with minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient warming, consistent with typical late-May climatology for the Bosporus region. Ensemble guidance indicates low likelihood of significant Atlantic frontal passage today, keeping any upward revision to 22°C or higher below 12% combined probability, while overnight cooling limits downside risk to 19°C or below. Traders are watching the next official bulletin from the Turkish State Meteorological Service for final confirmation before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,241
End Date
May 21, 2026
Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 12:08 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 21?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "20°C" at 43%, followed by "21°C" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 21?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 19, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 21?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 21?" is "20°C" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "21°C" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 21?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.