Recent forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET indicate Madrid’s daytime high on May 22 will likely peak at 32–33 °C, driven by a persistent ridge of high pressure that favors clear skies, strong solar heating, and minimal cloud cover or wind mixing. This setup, occurring amid above-average May conditions where typical highs reach only 24–26 °C, has concentrated trader consensus on the 33 °C outcome at 42.5 % implied probability, followed by 32 °C at 28 %. Light southerly winds and dry air further support modest warming without triggering convective cooling. The next AEMET and ECMWF model runs, expected within the next 12–24 hours, will determine whether any subtle ridge adjustments push the peak toward 34 °C or hold it near 32 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 22?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 22?
33°C 43%
32°C 28%
34°C 19%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
8%
32°C
28%
33°C
43%
34°C
19%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 43%
32°C 28%
34°C 19%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
27°C or below
$179 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$442 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$311 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$235 Vol.
2%
31°C
$743 Vol.
8%
32°C
$671 Vol.
28%
33°C
$886 Vol.
43%
34°C
$478 Vol.
19%
35°C
$232 Vol.
3%
36°C
$166 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$153 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET indicate Madrid’s daytime high on May 22 will likely peak at 32–33 °C, driven by a persistent ridge of high pressure that favors clear skies, strong solar heating, and minimal cloud cover or wind mixing. This setup, occurring amid above-average May conditions where typical highs reach only 24–26 °C, has concentrated trader consensus on the 33 °C outcome at 42.5 % implied probability, followed by 32 °C at 28 %. Light southerly winds and dry air further support modest warming without triggering convective cooling. The next AEMET and ECMWF model runs, expected within the next 12–24 hours, will determine whether any subtle ridge adjustments push the peak toward 34 °C or hold it near 32 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Volume
$4,495End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET indicate Madrid’s daytime high on May 22 will likely peak at 32–33 °C, driven by a persistent ridge of high pressure that favors clear skies, strong solar heating, and minimal cloud cover or wind mixing. This setup, occurring amid above-average May conditions where typical highs reach only 24–26 °C, has concentrated trader consensus on the 33 °C outcome at 42.5 % implied probability, followed by 32 °C at 28 %. Light southerly winds and dry air further support modest warming without triggering convective cooling. The next AEMET and ECMWF model runs, expected within the next 12–24 hours, will determine whether any subtle ridge adjustments push the peak toward 34 °C or hold it near 32 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,495End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET indicate Madrid’s daytime high on May 22 will likely peak at 32–33 °C, driven by a persistent ridge of high pressure that favors clear skies, strong solar heating, and minimal cloud cover or wind mixing. This setup, occurring amid above-average May conditions where typical highs reach only 24–26 °C, has concentrated trader consensus on the 33 °C outcome at 42.5 % implied probability, followed by 32 °C at 28 %. Light southerly winds and dry air further support modest warming without triggering convective cooling. The next AEMET and ECMWF model runs, expected within the next 12–24 hours, will determine whether any subtle ridge adjustments push the peak toward 34 °C or hold it near 32 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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