Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a highest temperature in Houston on May 22 in the low-to-mid 80s, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around the 82–85°F outcomes. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers expected to develop during peak heating hours are limiting daytime warming, while a modest onshore flow from the Gulf keeps humidity elevated and caps the thermal maximum. These conditions contrast with the late-May climatological average high near 89°F, explaining why traders have assigned only modest probability to readings at or above 86°F. Updated model guidance this evening and tomorrow morning will clarify whether any breaks in the cloud deck allow brief warming into the upper 80s before resolution.