Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS point to a maximum temperature in Warsaw on May 22 between 22°C and 23°C under scattered clouds and moderate north-westerly flow, explaining the near-even market-implied odds for these two outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over central Europe is limiting daytime heating while preventing significant cooling, keeping values within a narrow 1°C band around the May climatological average of 22°C. Key variables include afternoon cloud cover fraction and boundary-layer mixing depth, which could shift the high by 1–2°C depending on the final model run. Official resolution will rely on the Warsaw-Okecie station reading, with the next updated forecast expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 22?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 22?
22°C 41%
23°C 33%
24°C 11%
21°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
11%
22°C
41%
23°C
32%
24°C
11%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
22°C 41%
23°C 33%
24°C 11%
21°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
16°C or below
$25 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$225 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$34 Vol.
1%
20°C
$72 Vol.
4%
21°C
$158 Vol.
11%
22°C
$285 Vol.
41%
23°C
$264 Vol.
32%
24°C
$47 Vol.
11%
25°C
$10 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$98 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS point to a maximum temperature in Warsaw on May 22 between 22°C and 23°C under scattered clouds and moderate north-westerly flow, explaining the near-even market-implied odds for these two outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over central Europe is limiting daytime heating while preventing significant cooling, keeping values within a narrow 1°C band around the May climatological average of 22°C. Key variables include afternoon cloud cover fraction and boundary-layer mixing depth, which could shift the high by 1–2°C depending on the final model run. Official resolution will rely on the Warsaw-Okecie station reading, with the next updated forecast expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
Volume
$1,298End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:37 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS point to a maximum temperature in Warsaw on May 22 between 22°C and 23°C under scattered clouds and moderate north-westerly flow, explaining the near-even market-implied odds for these two outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over central Europe is limiting daytime heating while preventing significant cooling, keeping values within a narrow 1°C band around the May climatological average of 22°C. Key variables include afternoon cloud cover fraction and boundary-layer mixing depth, which could shift the high by 1–2°C depending on the final model run. Official resolution will rely on the Warsaw-Okecie station reading, with the next updated forecast expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,298End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:37 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS point to a maximum temperature in Warsaw on May 22 between 22°C and 23°C under scattered clouds and moderate north-westerly flow, explaining the near-even market-implied odds for these two outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over central Europe is limiting daytime heating while preventing significant cooling, keeping values within a narrow 1°C band around the May climatological average of 22°C. Key variables include afternoon cloud cover fraction and boundary-layer mixing depth, which could shift the high by 1–2°C depending on the final model run. Official resolution will rely on the Warsaw-Okecie station reading, with the next updated forecast expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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