Latest numerical weather prediction models indicate peak temperatures in Jeddah on May 22 most likely between 35°C and 37°C, consistent with the closely bunched market-implied probabilities across those bins. A dominant subtropical ridge over the Arabian Peninsula is promoting clear skies and strong daytime heating, while warm-air advection from the interior desert and typical May climatology—where average highs reach about 37°C—set the baseline. Proximity to the Red Sea introduces moderating sea-breeze effects that can limit afternoon maxima, creating the narrow spread among leading outcomes. Minor uncertainties in model guidance center on the precise strength and timing of coastal winds or any subtle moisture intrusion, which could shift the recorded high by 1–2°C and determine whether the day resolves at 35°C, 36°C, or 37°C.